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fxus61 kbtv 161956 
afdbtv 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont 
356 PM EDT Tuesday Mar 16 2010 


Synopsis... 
a ridge of high pressure will be over the region through 
Wednesday. A weak cold front will move south from Canada late 
Wednesday night and Thursday...bringing some clouds to the north country. 
A warm front will then move northeast across the region Thursday night. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/... 
as of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...a ridge of high pressure will be over 
the north country overnight with clear skies and light and 
variable winds expected. Have gone below MOS guidance for min 
temperatures overnight...as conditions will be ideal for 
radiational cooling overnight. Expecting some of the sheltered 
valleys of the Adirondacks to fall into the teens overnight. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Thursday night/... 
as of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...sunny skies expected on Wednesday...as 
the ridge of high pressure will be over the region. Have leaned 
toward the warmer GFS lamp guidance for maximum temperatures on 
Wednesday. BUFKIT forecast soundings showing some steep low level 
lapse rates up to 850 mb on Wednesday. Expecting this will mix 
down some lower dew points across the region on Wednesday...so 
have gone several degrees below MOS guidance foe dew points on 
Wednesday. 


Wednesday night...a weak back door cold front will move south 
from Canada late Wednesday night and Thursday. Just expecting an 
increase in cloud cover...but not expecting any precipitation with this 
front. Temperatures will be cooler on Thursday...due to expected 
cloud cover over the region. Thursday night...this cold front will 
start to move back northeast as a weak warm front...but again just 
expecting some clouds and nor precipitation with this warm front. 


&& 


Long term /Friday through Tuesday/... 
as of 320 PM EDT Tuesday...forecaster confidence level is moderate 
for the period. 


Potential of significant weather impacts...moderate. 


Long term forecast period starts out where the short term 
ends...with continued above normal temperatures & generally dry 
conditions. A weak system will be skimming by to our north across 
Quebec and there is a slim chance for a light shower/sprinkle for 
areas closer to the Canadian border. Expect it will mainly work 
out to be a partly cloudy day (perhaps mostly cloudy north). 
Stayed close to temperature guidance...with highs in the 50s. May 
end up being warmer if we break into more sun. 


Broken record of April weather in March to continue for the first 
official day of Spring. Ridging aloft builds across the area as a 
deep trough develops across the central US. Should again be 
generally dry with temperatures even a few degrees warmer. Painted in 
middle-upper 50s across northern areas with some low 60s across the 
south...but that may be too cool again. Depends on how much sun we 
end up getting. Probably wont cool off much Saturday night as 
pressure gradient tightens ahead of incoming storm...so trended 
several degress above guidance (u30s to l40s will be it). 


Things really start to change Sunday as strong low pressure moves 
across the Great Lakes...and 12z GFS & European model (ecmwf) models are fairly 
consistent which boosts confidence some. Pressure gradient 
continues to tighten...and southerly winds will start picking up. 
Probably see lots of g20-25mph. Those winds will also be advecting 
in warmer air...with 850mb temperatures over 4c. More clouds will inhibit 
mixing...but those stronger winds may be enough to offset things. 
Thus went above guidance somewhat...and think many locations 
(especially lower elevations) will be into the middle 60s. We 
searched hard for indications for seeing our first 70f of the 
year...but came up short. By later in the day...we'll probably be 
seeing some precipitation moving in as well. 


Sunday night into early Monday morning looks like it could rock 'n 
roll around here. 850mb jet increases to 60kt+ and so we could see 
some strong winds funnel up the Champlain Valley and St Lawrence 
Valley. Precipitation will also be coming in...precipitable water values 
prognosticated to be 200% of normal...indicating some of it could be 
heavy at times. Broke out some convective related data to look at 
as well...and see hints that elevated convection may be around as 
well. Certainly too far out to pinpoint details...but we have a 
shot for some locally heavy rains and Wind Advisory level winds 
for portions of the area. 


A strong cold front will move across the region during the day 
Monday...and we will notice it. Temperature forecast has big bust 
potential as timing is very uncertain. Currently painting highs 
in the middle 40s...but it could be 50f early and in the 30s by afternoon. 
850mb temperatures fall to -10c or so by Monday night...bringing back a 
taste of winter for the first few days of Spring. Left over 
moisture will result in precipitation transitioning back to snow showers. 
And temperatures...believe it or not...will likely be below normal 
Tuesday when we will struggle to get out of the 30s. 


Looking a little farther out...appears we may have below normal 
temperatures for the 2nd half of next week. Mother nature is 
apparently not ready for US to fully transition to Spring. 


&& 


Aviation /20z Tuesday through Sunday/... 
through 18z Wednesday...continued VFR conditions as high pressure 
is predominate across the region. Just a wind forecast next 24hrs. 
Surface winds this afternoon generally 340-010 at 6-12kts. After 
sunset quickly becoming <3kt area wide. After 15z Wednesday...surface 
winds 240-290 at 5-10kts. Possibly a little gustier in St Lawrence 
Valley. Very slim chance of patchy fog after 06z at primarily fog 
prone locations. Did not include in tafs. 


Outlook 18z Wednesday through Sunday... 
18z Wednesday-12z Thursday...VFR 
12z Thursday-00z Friday...mainly VFR. Perhaps MVFR ceilings closer to 
Canadian border 
00z Friday-00z sun...VFR 
00z sun-00z Monday...mainly VFR...some MVFR in rain showers. Increasingly 
gusty surface winds. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
as of 320 PM Tuesday...a note to users -- we will be starting our 
daily fire weather planning forecast (fwfbtv) tomorrow morning. 
Conditions across lower elevations where snow has melted are still 
rather dry...especially across the north where not much precipitation 
fell recently. 1 hour fuels are reacting quickly to the warm/dry 
conditions...and will continue to dry out the next few days. 


&& 


Equipment... 
as of 320 PM Tuesday...we recently installed wind equipment on Montana 
Mansfield and are receiving data in near real-time. A temperature 
sensor will be added soon. We will be adding these data to our 
hourly weather Roundup reports. The data will also be added to 
our website in the coming week or two...and needless to say...will 
be greatly useful. 


&& 


Btv watches/warnings/advisories... 
Vermont...none. 
New York...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...wgh 
near term...wgh 
short term...wgh 
long term...Nash 
aviation...Nash 
fire weather... 
equipment... 

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