518 
fxus61 krlx 200111 
afdrlx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Charleston WV 
911 PM EDT Friday Mar 19 2010 


Synopsis... 
high pressure in control through Saturday. Low pressure system 
passes Sunday night into Monday...with showers lingering Monday 
night into early Tuesday. Warmer and drier Wednesday. 


&& 


Near term /through Saturday/... 
cirrus spilling over ridge will mainly affect the northwest 
portion of County Warning Area overnight...have increased sky grids there in 
particular. Otherwise...another quiet night. Kept overnight low 
temperatures the same...once again MOS and lamp are too warm overall. 
Warmer temperatures in the west look good considering approaching veil of 
clouds. 


&& 


Short term /Saturday night through Monday/... 
have the surface front sagging south into our southeast Ohio Saturday 
evening. Have it stalling in northern WV and near Ohio River by 
Sunday morning. Have continued only a 20 to 30 pop along that front 
Saturday night...with deeper moisture remaining to the north. 
However...am concerned this front could set up a sharper contrast in 
temperatures on Sunday afternoon than I have painted...and may help 
focus some of the showers arriving from the southwest late Sunday 
and Sunday night. 


We continue to side more toward the southern solution of the GFS and 
European model (ecmwf) with the 500 mb closed low Sunday night into Monday. 12z NAM 
was the furthest north. With the closed low further north on the 
NAM...it has more instability here on Monday. Have possible thunder 
Sunday afternoon and night...but did not include now for 
Monday...with that more southern track. 


Have winds increasing Sunday night...especially over the high 
terrain. 


Despite the drying and enhanced fire danger...we still have to 
monitor rain amounts from Sunday night through Monday night...since 
vegetation is still dormant. There is good upper level divergence 
Sunday afternoon and Monday. As of now...thinking most rain amounts 
Sunday night and Monday would be .5 to an inch. 


&& 


Long term /Monday night through Friday/... 
the upper level low continues to slowly track eastward...with the 
surface low moving through the Ohio River valley and will be east 
of our area by Tuesday morning. Higher probability of precipitation linger over the eastern 
high terrain in WV through Monday night. 


Given the previous model disagreement over the large pattern...the 
models have a surprisingly moderate level of agreement with the 
large pattern throughout the remainder of the extended 
forecast...therefore the extended forecast was equally influenced by 
the European model (ecmwf)...GFS...and HPC guidance. High pressure will begin to 
settle in Tuesday...and it will bring warmer daytime temperatures 
and drier conditions with it. Skies will be clearing as the system 
approaches...daytime highs will reach above 60...except in the 
higher elevations where daytime highs will be in the lower to middle 
50s. Skies will clear at night and radiational cooling will cause 
nighttime lows to be in the upper 30s and lower 40s. 


The chance of precipitation will return late in the week with the 
approach of the next shortwave trough...the most likely chance of 
precipitation will occur Friday afternoon. 


&& 


Aviation /01z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
another quiet 24 hour period...with VFR conditions and no fog 
foreseen. Cirrus at most overnight...while a small increase in low 
level moisture should lead to scattered cumulus tomorrow afternoon. 


After 00z Sunday... 
brief IFR possible in showers/isolated thunderstorms Sunday 
afternoon and night. 


&& 


Rlx watches/warnings/advisories... 
WV...none. 
Ohio...none. 
Kentucky...none. 
Virginia...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...ktb/jem/rpy 
near term...cl 
short term...ktb 
long term...mdp/jem 
aviation...cl