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Area forecast discussion 
southcentral and southwest Alaska 
100 PM akdt Friday Mar 19 2010 


Model discussion...models in pretty good agreement on synoptic 
features with the exception of the North Pacific low that tracks 
south of the Aleutians this weekend. Nam12 is 5 to 7 mb higher than 
GFS and European model (ecmwf) and plots low center 150 nm to the west. Would appear 
that GFS is a good solution to work with...deepest central pressure 
is Sunday morning in the 975 to 970 mb range. Primary impact is in 
western and central Aleutians. 




Analysis and upper levels...northern Gulf weather front continues to 
dissipate this afternoon with a second weakening front over the 
southwest and Bristol Bay. 




Short term forecast...generally cloudy Friday night and Sat over 
southwest and southcentral but no significant weather systems over 
land. 
Bering...high pressure builds over central and eastern Bering Sat and 
remains intact through the first half of next week. 
Aleutians...southeast winds increasing in western Alabama tonight and 
central Alabama Sat but well below warning criteria. Precipitation from this 
system should be in the form of rain. 


Long term forecast...models indicating another weak low forming in 
the southern Gulf Monday moving into the northern Gulf on Tuesday. Precipitation 
along the coast and Copper River basin with a good north to south 
pressure gradient forming across the state. A weakening weather front 
moves into the western Alabama on Tuesday and dissipates over central Alabama on 
Wednesday. 






Aer/alu...watch/warning summary 
public...none 
marine...gale 172 
fire weather...none 


Mar 10 

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