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Area forecast discussion 
southcentral and southwest Alaska 
200 PM akdt Sat Mar 20 2010 


Model discussion... 
pretty good model agreement early on with differences beginning to 
become apparent at about 60 hours. Preference more NAM for first 
couple of days. From 60 to 84 hours leaned toward the GFS out west 
and the European model (ecmwf) in the Gulf. Changes to existing forecast were 
minimal. 


Analysis and upper levels... 
upper ridge stretched north to south across the state. Upper trough 
along the West Coast of Alaska with another trough over the western 
Aleutians and a ridge over the central/eastern Bering Sea. 


Short term forecast... 
expect basically dry conditions over southern Alaska through Sunday 
night with the ridge overhead and the West Coast trough weakening. 
The ridge over the Bering Sea will also sharpen up as a deep low 
develops near the Kamchatka peninsula. 


Southerly flow will develop over the Gulf of Alaska and bring 
moisture northward on Monday and Tuesday. This will usher in a 
decently strong to the northern Gulf Monday night. Although the 
high over southern Alaska will weaken...some residual "ridginess" 
will linger over the state keeping the bulk of the moisture confined 
to coastal areas. Further west...a fairly strong front associated 
with the Kamchatka low will cross the western Aleutians on Monday 
and the central Aleutians on Tuesday. 


Aer/alu...watch/warning summary 
public...none. 
Marine...Gale Warning 170 172 176. Heavy freezing spray 179. 
Fire weather...none. 


Ludwig Mar 10 

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