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fxus64 kbmx 201151 cca 
afdbmx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama 
650 am CDT Sat Mar 20 2010 


Update...for aviation discussion. 


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Discussion... 


Today will be another beautiful day across central Alabama...with 
highs once again reaching into the lower 70s. Cloud cover will begin 
to increase from west to east later this afternoon and evening as a 
frontal system approaches from the west. 


The timing of this Saturday night/Sunday system remains the same. 
Rain will begin after 00z tonight in the west and will spread 
eastward during the overnight hours. Showers and thunderstorms are 
likely area wide through Sunday morning. Confidence in the 
possibility of strong to severe weather continues to decrease with 
each successive model run. Instabilities are significantly lacking 
in this part of the region as the bulk of the more unstable air will 
stay well to our south. The greatest threat will still be the 
possibility of stronger winds aloft being transported down to the 
surface. Will keep strong wording in the severe weather potential statement for now...but will 
decrease confidence level a bit. 


The cold front is still set to exit the area Sunday evening...but 
skies will remain cloudy and rain chances will continue due to wrap 
around moisture on the backside of the system. The GFS and Euro are 
almost spot on with the track of the upper level low and the 
associated surface low. The upper level low occludes and slides 
eastward across north Alabama Sunday night and into Monday morning. 
The GFS solution is a little cooler than the Euro...with 1000-500mb 
and 1000-850mb thicknesses supporting...Dare I mention it...snow. 
Decided to go ahead and introduce a chance of light rain/snow mix 
for areas north of a Millport...to Birmingham...to Montana cheaha line 
during the overnight hours on Sunday. No snow accumulations are 
expected. Will have to watch and see if the Euro starts to trend 
toward the GFS or vice versa. 


Temperatures will be a little cooler behind the front...with temperatures falling 
into the middle and upper 30s Sunday night and highs in the low to middle 
50s on Monday. Skies will finally begin to clear by Monday evening 
and should remain mostly clear through Wednesday. Temperatures will 
gradually increase through middle week with highs back in the 70s by 
Wednesday afternoon. 


Models continue to show a second system pushing across the region 
late in the week...bringing another round of showers and 
thunderstorms to central Alabama. If current trends continue...then 
the start of the precipitation may have to be delayed even farther...with 
rain beginning late on Thursday. 


19 


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Aviation...12z taf discussion. 


VFR conditions will persist through 12z Sunday. However...MVFR ceilings 
and rain will be rapidly approaching from the west after 12z Sunday 
as a strong cold front pushes east of the Mississippi River. 


03 


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Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Gadsden 71 50 57 37 50 / 10 50 90 50 30 
Anniston 72 49 58 36 51 / 10 50 90 50 30 
Birmingham 72 49 56 36 52 / 10 70 80 50 30 
Tuscaloosa 71 49 56 37 53 / 10 90 70 50 30 
Calera 71 50 56 36 52 / 10 80 80 50 30 
Auburn 73 49 60 37 53 / 10 40 90 30 30 
Montgomery 73 51 61 39 55 / 10 70 80 30 20 
Troy 73 50 61 39 55 / 10 50 90 30 20 


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Bmx watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


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$$ 


19/03