617 
fxus65 kboi 151008 cca 
afdboi 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Boise Idaho 
318 am MDT Monday Mar 15 2010 


Short term...today through Tuesday night...upper ridge axis over 
southwest Idaho will pull away today which will allow warmer 
southwest flow aloft over the region. With a forecast high of 65 
at Boise...Tuesday afternoon is expected to be the warmest day of 
the calendar year so far...but 9f shy of the record of 74 set back 
in 1887. Wavy cold front offshore into western Washington and British Columbia this 
morning has a developing wave on it approaching 35n 135w this 
morning. That wave will lift NE and take the bulk of its energy 
into western Washington and British Columbia through late Tuesday morning. The effect 
of that over SW Idaho and southeast Oregon is to increase east to south 
winds this afternoon and tonight. Diffuse surface high pressure 
around 1030 mbs this morning with light winds will respond to 
falling pressures and a 4 mbs gradient from Jerome to Burns this 
afternoon and 6 mbs tonight. As the wavy front continues inland it 
will bring a chance of showers to the far northern zones /bke- 
myl/ and just clouds through the rest of southeast Oregon Tuesday 
afternoon and SW Idaho Tuesday night. The frontal passage with a 
shift to west winds 10-15 miles per hour gusts up to 25 miles per hour...and 
colder/drying air is likely over central Oregon/Harney County 
late Tuesday night. But it will likely be moisture starved from 
Burns to Boise and points south and east. Flood awareness week 
safety messages will be coming out each morning this week. 


Long term...Wednesday through Monday...weak cold front passes 
through the forecast area on Wednesday...but best lift is further 
north...so best chance for any precipitation in central Idaho mountains and 
very low elsewhere. On Thursday and Friday Ridge rebuilds along the 
west...turning the flow northerly over the forecast area. This 
brings in a bit cooler air and and some chances of mountain 
showers...but the main story will likely be windy conditions on 
Thursday as upper level flow turns northwest and increases...with an 
associated northwest surface pressure gradient from the cold air 
being dragged southward. Ridge from the coast pushes in from the 
west on Saturday and Sunday for a warming trend...but another 
trough appears likely to approach the forecast area on Monday for 
another chance of showers and turning cooler again. 


&& 


Aviation...VFR conditions with a few high clouds. Light southwest 
winds aloft increase slightly during the day. Mostly light surface 
winds in the morning...become easterly and start to increase late in 
the day. 


&& 


Boi watches/warnings/advisories... 
Idaho...none. 
Or...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Weather.Gov/Boise 


Short term...vm 
long term....tb/Mt 
aviation.....Tb