325 
fxus63 kind 211731 cca 
afdind 


Area forecast discussion...corrected 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in 
130 PM EDT sun Mar 21 2010 


Aviation... 
for 18z tafs...based on current radar trends plan on bumping up 
timing of rain. As of 130 PM center of low located over central 
Missouri and outer bands of system have already begun to reach 
southwestern Indiana. Rain will slowly spread over the state the 
rest the afternoon and evening...become moderate in intensity 
overnight as main slug of moisture arrives. Many of the terminals 
may fall to IFR after midnght in any of the heavier rain bands, 
and this was indicated in the tafs. As the center of the low 
approaches northeast winds with gusts 20 to 25 knots are possible 
this afternoon and tonight. Rain generally continues into Monday 
and slowly tapers off from west to east late in the day. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 956 am EDT sun Mar 21 2010/ 


Update... 
radar mosaic is currently showing rain moving into the 
southwest portions of Indiana as low pushes through Missouri 
Valley. As a result...bumped sky cover and probability of precipitation up a bit over 
southwest portions of warning area. Otherwise...temperatures are on 
track. Updated grids have been sent. 


Previous discussion... /issued 700 am EDT sun Mar 21 2010/ 


Discussion... 


Forecast focus is on rain chances into Monday night along with 
temperatures. 


At 06z the front had settled not too far south of the forecast area. 
A surface low was across Arkansas...with the upper low across 
northeast Texas. Precipitation was across western Illinois and 
across western Tennessee. Movement was generally to the north. 


Models were in pretty good agreement with main features. Of course 
they have been in decent agreement recently but all were too fast 
with precipitation moving into the area. For this run decided to go 
toward the slower end of the models for precipitation...otherwise 
went with a blend. 


Isentropic lift continues throughout the day today...but best push 
of moisture and additonal dynamic lift does not occur until late in 
the day. Except for the southern third of the area...will keep the 
area dry this morning and then increase probability of precipitation from south to north 
during the afternoon. By 00z will have likely or higher probability of precipitation across 
the southern third of the area. Northeast flow at the surface will 
help slow arrival of rain across the northern area...so will only 
have low probability of precipitation there. Slower arrival of the rain should allow 
temperatures to warm to near the warmer mav numbers...which are 
supported by the sref mean. 


Tonight the surface low moves through Kentucky. Isentropic lift and 
qvector forecasts show forcing focused mainly across the southern 
two thirds of the area. Will go categorical probability of precipitation across this 
area...with likely probability of precipitation across the remainder. Mav seems to have a 
good handle on forecast lows with cooler temperatures northwest 
/where there will be less rain/. Will thus stick close to mav for 
lows. 


Lift wrapping around the backside of the system will continue to 
provide likely probability of precipitation across much of area on Monday. With the slower 
progression of the system...continued probability of precipitation all areas on Monday 
night. Rain will keep temperatures down on Monday...but some 
sunshine on Tuesday will allow a rebound to around 60 degrees. 


&& 


Ind watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Update...tdud 
public...cs 
aviation...smf