308 
fxus64 klch 111951 
afdlch 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lake Charles la 
251 PM CDT sun may 11 2008 


Discussion... 
a pleasant mother's day across the forecast area as high pressure 
builds in bringing cooler and less humid conditions. 


The nice weather will continue through Monday as high pressure 
slides east across the region. 


Southerly winds off the Gulf will begin by Monday night. Guidance 
shows a short wave moving around the 7h ridge and across the 
forecast area on Tuesday. Return moisture surge should be enough 
that a few showers and thunderstorms will be able to develop with 
this short wave. 


Chance probability of precipitation will be in the forecast for the middle week. A cold front 
will stall north of the forecast area on Wednesday night. In the 
meantime...an upper level disturbance will move slowly eastward 
out of the southwest U.S. And toward the region. Moisture profiles 
look rather good during this time period with precipitable water and mean relative humidity 
over 1.5 inches and 70 percent respectively. At this 
point...heaviest rain will probably fall just north of the 
forecast area near the surface and 850 mb front were low level 
convergence will be the greatest to help focus activity. 


Chance probability of precipitation will gradually ease off during Friday as upper level 
trough swings to the east allowing for deeper northwest flow to 
develop bringing drier air over the region. 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions will prevail through Monday. Breezy north winds 
will diminish around sunset. 


&& 


Marine... 
moderate northerly winds behind a cold front will continue through 
the night as drier/cooler air moves across the Gulf waters. 
Exercise caution criteria should be met. Winds will diminish on 
Monday and become more easterly. Return flow off the Gulf should 
begin by late Monday as high pressure quickly moves off to the east. 


Southerly winds will increase by Tuesday and continue through 
Thursday as high pressure holds east of the coastal waters...and 
low pressure develops over the Southern Plains. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
klch 54 82 66 85 / 0 0 10 20 
kbpt 56 83 70 85 / 0 0 10 20 
kaex 50 85 60 85 / 0 0 10 30 
klft 55 83 62 85 / 0 0 10 20 


&& 


Lch watches/warnings/advisories... 
la...none. 
Texas...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Rua