112 
fxus64 klix 112024 
afdlix 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la 
324 PM CDT sun may 11 2008 


Discussion... 
the front has pushed off into the Gulf without much fanfare. Skies 
quickly cleared behind the boundary...and temperatures were able 
to warm a bit head of the cooler drier airmass. Thus...we are seeing 
temperature readings this hour in the middle to upper 80s on the 
southshore and Mississippi Gulf Coast while the northern portion 
of the forecast area has finally hit the 80 degree mark. 
With clear skies and light northerly winds...temperatures tonight will 
drop into the low 50s north and upper 50s south...a welcome change 
from the last several mornings. 


Cold air advection continues tomorrow as high pressure builds 
across the region. This should keep the highs in the lower 80s 
for all locations. Tomorrow night will still be cool but with 
readings about 5 degrees warmer than tonight. 


The ridge shifts eastward and return flow sets up Tuesday as an 
upper low drops into the southern rockies. At the same time...it 
looks like a weak disturbance moving northward from southern Texas 
may enhance rain chances Tuesday in the western and northern portions 
of the forecast area. Right now...it looks like 20% should cover it. 


An upper low pressure system moving across the northern Great 
Lakes region will push a cold front through the Mississippi and 
Tennessee valleys midweek. However...it looks like this front will stall 
over the Gulf Coast states for a few days. The first upper low 
over Texas moves along the boundary Thursday...enhancing rain 
chances and possibly giving way to a heavy rain situation near and 
along the boundary where the best focus will be. At this time...it 
looks like this may be just to the north of our forecast area. 


The kicker shortwave moves across the plains and finally pushes 
the boundary into the Gulf Friday. High pressure will then build 
in behind the frontal boundary for the remainder of the weekend. 


And to all the mothers out there...Happy mothers day! 


&& 


Aviation... 
with the cold front clearing all four taf sites...VFR conditions 
will continue through 18z Monday. Surface winds should collapse at 
gpt...mcb...and gpt between 23z sun and 02z Monday. Surface winds 
should decrease at msy between 07z and 10z Monday. 


&& 


Marine... 
boundary layer winds are depicted between 20 and 24 knots across the 
coastal waters from 03z to 09z Monday...according to the GFS and 
Eta model models. In addition...upstream surface winds across south 
Mississippi and Louisiana are around 15 knots with higher gusts. 
1000 to 700mb thickness layer values over the coastal waters are 
expected to drop from 3050m to 3010m by Monday morning. This 
strong cold air advection over sea surface temperatures of 78f will allow 
boundary winds to mix down. Ergo...have issued a Small Craft 
Advisory on the Gulf coastal waters tonight. Cold air advection is 
expected to cease as the main trough lifts northeast Monday. 
Onshore flow is expected to increase as the next system tightens 
the pressure gradient across the waters Wednesday through 
Thursday...with caution headlines possible. At this time...the frontal 
passage is expected early Friday...and winds are expected to 
remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria Friday afternoon and 
night. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
mcb 50 82 56 84 / 0 0 10 20 
btr 53 83 61 86 / 0 0 10 20 
msy 58 81 64 85 / 0 0 10 10 
gpt 53 82 58 82 / 0 0 10 10 


&& 


Lix watches/warnings/advisories... 
la...none. 
MS...none. 
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 am CDT 
Monday for gmz550-555-570-575. 


&& 


$$