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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la 
921 PM CST Friday Nov 6 2009 


Discussion... 
a persistently dry and stable pattern continues tonight as high 
pressure remains anchored across the eastern Seaboard. Satellite 
imagery indicates high cloudiness streaming across the northern 
Gulf Coast in response to sufficient moisture from T.D. Ida. 
These clouds are forecast to remain south of the four state region 
throughout the evening allowing for mostly clear skies to persist. 


For this update...went ahead and mentioned patchy fog wording 
across the southern zones during the overnight hours. Also...dropped 
low temperatures across Monroe and El Dorado a few degrees to line 
up with previous trends. 


Otherwise...aside from minor adjustments in dewpoint and humidity 
values...current forecast package remains on track. /05/ 


&& 


Aviation... 
mostly VFR through 08/00z. However...some fog expected between 08z 
and 13z...with MVFR visibility in a few locations as temperature/dewpoint spreads 
close. Also brief MVFR ceilings possible in parts of East Texas...mainly 
along a lfk...tyr...prx line. Surface winds light south to southeast 
tonight...increasing to near 10 kts by middle morning. /14/ 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 304 PM CST Friday Nov 6 2009/ 


Discussion... 
high pressure sliding to the east...allowing light southerly winds 
to flow across area. Upper low moving into northern Baja California region. 
While plentiful upper level moisture will cross Rio Grande and into 
East Texas by Sunday afternoon...low pressure over Gulf will divert the 
greater amount of Gulf moisture to east of MS river. GFS and European model (ecmwf) 
are in good agreement with each other while NAM does not 
acknowlege the moisture surge as well...instead leaving a weak 
upper low over NE Texas. Increasing clouds Sat night due to both a 
strong low cloud signature seen on GFS...and saturated moisture 
above 500 mb streaming NE across area. A minimal threat of thunder 
with fairly stable conditions...and keep only slight chance Red 
River valley most of this period...until system begins kicking to 
the east Monday night./Vii/ 


Aviation... 
patchy fog has burned off with VFR conditions expected once again 
today. Pressure gradient is a little tighter today than days past so 
could see some brief gusts this afternoon at tyr/ggg/txk terminals 
approaching 16-18kts or so from the south but otherwise...south winds 
near 8-10kts looks good until sunset. Some high thin cirrus spreading 
eastward across the region today with some late morning/afternoon 
cumulus possible across NE Texas/northwest la terminals as well. /13/ 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
shv 53 76 55 75 59 / 0 0 10 20 30 
mlu 47 75 53 76 57 / 0 0 10 10 30 
deq 54 77 50 74 54 / 0 0 10 10 20 
txk 54 76 55 74 57 / 0 0 10 10 20 
eld 51 77 52 76 55 / 0 0 10 10 30 
tyr 54 78 58 76 60 / 0 0 10 30 30 
ggg 54 77 56 75 57 / 0 0 10 20 30 
lfk 55 80 57 77 59 / 0 0 10 30 40 


&& 


Shv watches/warnings/advisories... 
Arkansas...none. 
La...none. 
OK...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


05/14