068 
fxus64 kshv 210323 
afdshv 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la 
923 PM CST Friday Nov 20 2009 


..an update to the forecast will be coming... 


Discussion... 
isentropically-generated areas of light rain continue to fall across 
much of the forecast area this evening. Rainfall amounts have been 
on the light side since late afternoon...with most places receiving 
less than a quarter inch. 


The driving force for all of the weather remains an upper-level 
storm system moving across the Texas Hill country this evening. As 
it continues pushing eastward...look for areas of light rain to 
continue off-and-on through the night as surface low pressure heads 
toward southeast Louisiana. 


For the most part...the ongoing forecast appears to be in great 
shape. I have adjusted the hourly temperature and dewpoint grids 
based on observational data. This has resulted in slightly warmer 
overnight temperatures /based upon the local diurnal curve/...and 
the updated numbers are listed below for your perusal. No 
significant changes were otherwise made at this time. 


Isc grids have been sent and should be posted to the internet. An 
updated suite of text products will be issued shortly. /21/ 


&& 


Aviation... 
off and on light rain showers occurring at the western taf sites and 
at shv. Have put rain showers in as prevailing with tempo groups reserved 
for lower visibility and lower ceilings which arent corresponding with the 
showers. VFR ceilings for the most part should lower to MVFR ceilings at 
most of the taf sites overnight...with possible isolated IFR ceilings at 
lfk through 21/15z. After 21/15z...ceilings will gradually improve to 
VFR by 21/21z as the short wave moves to the east of the four state 
area. Visibilities may lower to MVFR in rain at times through 21/12z. East 
southeast winds may shift to the northeast on Saturday as a surface 
low pressure system moves along the Gulf Coast. 
/04/ 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
shv 52 60 42 68 45 / 60 60 30 10 0 
mlu 51 59 43 66 42 / 40 60 40 10 0 
deq 52 61 41 65 45 / 40 40 30 10 0 
txk 50 60 44 66 44 / 50 50 30 10 0 
eld 49 60 42 65 43 / 30 50 40 10 0 
tyr 54 60 45 69 49 / 60 50 20 10 0 
ggg 53 60 43 69 47 / 60 50 20 10 0 
lfk 51 61 41 70 48 / 70 60 20 10 0 


&& 


Shv watches/warnings/advisories... 
Arkansas...none. 
La...none. 
OK...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Public forecaster... d. Butts 
aviation forecaster... stellman