116 
fxus64 kshv 071045 
afdshv 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la 
444 am CST Sat Nov 7 2009 


Discussion... 
as the return flow continues around 1027 mb high now over the East 
Coast...we are seeing some low stratus sneaking into portions of 
northeast and southeast Texas. Otherwise...skies remain fair with 
good visibility for most. Looks like much of these thicker low clouds should 
keep just to the west of County Warning Area...and really not have much of an 
effect on today/S highs. We/re pretty close to mav guidance 
through the weekend for that matter. Meanwhile...middle and upper 
level dry air is holding and even decreasing on last ascent with 
00z precipitable water below 4 tenths of an inch. And water vapor stilling 
showing this dry air in place...but the low levels are obviously 
moistening up a bit. Should be a great start to the weekend. 


And the latter part...not too bad either with GFS trending a bit 
farther south and east with it/S moisture out of the Gulf late 
Sunday into Monday. However...Euro still broad brushing the area 
with some amount of quantitative precipitation forecast. Good compromise is the HPC quantitative precipitation forecast grids 
which are loaded in for the most part at this time. 
Overall...little change in sensible wording with precipitation 
expectations for this event...but the drier trend noted yesterday is 
fairly consistent once again. 


However...TPC track is faster and farther west than yesterday...so 
decided to keep pop/weather similar to previous for now as there is 
still room for debate. Actually...the next system middle month has 
been a consistently wetter scenario for the area. Mex numbers 
blended into extended which still look seasonal...but the actual 
surface high is slower and weaker on GFS and Euro over our area...but 
a good north wind...early on the back side of lifting Gulf surface 
low. 


&& 


Aviation... 
IFR stratus has developed across portions of East Texas...affecting 
tyr as of 07/10z. Stratus will push into lfk...and possibly ggg...by 
07/12z as southerly flow carries Gulf moisture back into the region. 
All airports should be VFR by 07/15z and afternoon cumulus will be more 
widespread for Saturday afternoon. MVFR stratus will develop early 
Sunday across East Texas...and patchy MVFR to IFR visibilities are 
expected across Louisiana and southwest Arkansas as high pressure 
slowly slides to the east. /18/ 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
shv 78 53 76 58 72 / 0 10 20 30 40 
mlu 76 51 76 57 69 / 0 10 10 30 50 
deq 78 47 75 52 73 / 0 10 10 20 20 
txk 77 54 75 57 72 / 0 10 10 20 30 
eld 78 50 76 55 71 / 0 10 10 30 40 
tyr 79 56 76 59 74 / 0 10 20 30 30 
ggg 78 54 76 57 74 / 0 10 20 30 30 
lfk 79 56 78 59 75 / 0 10 30 40 30 


&& 


Shv watches/warnings/advisories... 
Arkansas...none. 
La...none. 
OK...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


24/18