088 
fxus63 ksgf 201610 
afdsgf 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO 
1110 am CDT Sat Mar 20 2010 


..winter storm discussion... 


Update... 


Precipitation had overspread southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri 
at late morning. Snow was falling mainly along and west of Highway 
71 and north of Neosho where a period of freezing rain at the 
onset left a light glaze on elevated objects. A mix of rain 
occasionally mixed with sleet was falling east to the Highway 65 
corridor. Snow accumulations across southeast Kansas into west 
central Missouri have generally been near one inch or less through 
middle morning. 


Radar and satellite trends suggest precipitation will remain 
steady if not increase in intensity west of Highway 65 this 
afternoon. Snow will be heavy at times along and west of Highway 
71 and north of Neosho where 1 to 3 inches will be possible 
through the afternoon. Latest model and sounding data suggest 
precipitation will remain snow into at least this evening. 
Uncertainty exists later tonight and Sunday on the amount of 
warming above the surface and a possible transition to a wintry 
mix. Total accumulations of 4 to 8 inches will be common within 
the warning with localized heavier amounts near one foot possible 
in southeast Kansas. 


Farther east the thermal profile remains a challenge. A mix of rain 
and sleet will continue this afternoon within the advisory area. 
A narrow band of freezing rain may develop from Barry County north 
to Dade County but any accumulation will be minor and confined to 
elevated objects this afternoon. Will continue to closely monitor a 
corridor from Cassville to Dadeville and Bolivar for freezing rain 
potential tonight. 


Foster 




&& 


Discussion... 


A significant winter storm is taking shape across the Central 
Plains. A strong shortwave continues to dig into western Kansas and 
Oklahoma. Widespread cloud cover and precipitation are forming 
along the frontal boundary that extends from eastern Oklahoma 
northward to Illinois. The primary challenge with this event will 
be forecasting precipitation type. A shallow cold air mass is 
moving southward behind the front. By late on Saturday through the 
day on Sunday...the surface low will intensify and track across 
northern Arkansas. This area of low pressure will wrap copious 
amounts of warm moist air over the top of the shallow cold 
airmass in place over the County Warning Area. Model soundings consistently show 
that...over central Missouri...a strong warm nose will form aloft 
and that the low level airmass will not fall well below freezing. 
The presence of the strong warm air aloft will cause much of the 
precipitation to fall as rain. The depth and temperature of the 
low level cold air suggest that melted hydrometers will likely 
reach the surface as liquid. With warm ground temperatures over 
the past two days...significant surface freezing will be 
difficult. However...some minor ice accumulations can be expected 
on elevated surfaces. Further to the west...surface temperatures 
behind the front will fall well below freezing and the warm nose 
aloft will not rise significantly above freezing. This will result 
in heavy snowfall long the Missouri Kansas border along and west 
of the Highway 71 corridor. Precipitation is expected to end early 
Monday morning as the low pressure center exits the area. 
Temperatures will recover to near 60 for Tuesday through Thursday 
with ridging moving into the area behind the passing low. 
However...another shortwave trough will approach the area for 
Friday bringing another chance for precipitation. 


Kardell 




&& 


Aviation... 


Precipitation will continue through Sunday at area terminals. 
Mixed precipitation will change to snow at Joplin this afternoon 
while a mix of rain and sleet will affect Springfield. Freezing 
rain may develop at the Springfield terminal tonight but 
considerable uncertainty continues. Otherwise IFR conditions will 
prevail. 


Foster 




&& 


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories... 
MO...Flood Watch through Monday morning for moz055>058-066>071- 
077>083-088>098-101>106. 


Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT 
Sunday for moz056-057-068-069-079>081-089-090-094-095-102- 
103. 


Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT Sunday for moz055-066-067- 
077-078-088-093-101. 


Kansas...Flood Watch through Monday morning for ksz073-097-101. 


Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT Sunday for ksz073-097-101. 


&& 


$$