889 
fxus65 ktfx 200445 
afdtfx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Great Falls Montana 
1045 PM MDT Friday Mar 19 2010 


..update to aviation... 


Update...forecast has been updated to raise overnight low 
temperatures several degrees along the east slopes of the Rocky 
Mountains. This area will be under the influence of developing 
south to southwest surface winds overnight along with increasing 
thickness values. Latest model runs are showing overnight 
temperatures remaining nearly steady or slowly rising in this 
region. So far this evening temperatures have not fallen very much 
considering skies are clear and winds are light so feel confident 
bumping the temperatures. Have also updated sky condition to 
reflect mostly clear skies across the entire region. Patchy fog 
remains a possibility in the valleys of southwest Montana so will 
be left in forecast. Mpj 


&& 


Aviation... 
updated 0445z. 
VFR conditions will dominate for the next 24 hours. Some fog 
formation during the overnight hours is possible in the southwest 
valleys leading to the possibility of mountain obscurations. Have 
left the kbzn taf at vcfg. Dewpoint depression should be high enough 
to limit widespread fog. Winds will increase through the morning 
hours across the Rocky Mountain front and adjacent High Plains. 
Gusts up to 25 knots will be possible across the Rocky Mountain 
front. Suk 


&& 


Previous discussion... 
/issued 555 PM MDT Friday Mar 19 2010/ 
tonight through Sunday...a rather quiet period of weather is 
expected over the region for the upcoming weekend. Overall...an 
upper level ridge of high pressure that is currently over the 
Pacific northwest will slowly move eastward towards central Montana 
Saturday through Sunday. As a result...there will be a few early 
evening isolated snow showers around Bozeman 
tonight...otherwise...dry weather will prevail over the region 
through Sunday. With the clearing skies tonight...expect a cold 
night for most locations. Additionally...patchy fog could develop in 
the Bozeman area as well. For Saturday expect afternoon temperatures 
to slowly rebound to above normal readings...as the warmer air moves 
in from the west. On Saturday night...breezy west winds will keep 
temperatures a bit milder. The winds could become strong over the 
northern Rocky Mountain front by Sunday morning...and high wind 
highlights may be needed for this region. Afternoon temperatures will 
continue to warm on Sunday...especially at lower elevations. Brusda 


Sunday night through Friday...the upper level ridge will dominate 
the area through Monday morning. Models are in good agreement on 
the timing...location and strength of the next system as it makes 
its way onshore over the Pacific northwest Monday. Moisture 
associated with the system will reach central Montana late Monday 
morning and continue to increase throughout the day. Current 
temperatures indicate mountain snow and mixed precipitation over 
the plains and valleys. While most of the energy seems to be 
pushing south towards the Great Basin...northwest flow and 
disorganized waves of energy will pass through western and central 
Montana through Tuesday afternoon. Increased probability of precipitation across portions 
of Montana for Tuesday with likely probability of precipitation in the mountains and 
chance elsewhere. By Tuesday night and Wednesday...a transient 
upper-level ridge should move over the region with drier 
conditions and temperatures around seasonal averages. Models 
diverge from Thursday Onward with multiple shots of light 
precipitation being hinted at. As a result...have stayed pretty 
close to climatology for temperatures and precipitation for the 
end of the extended forecast. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
gtf 19 59 32 64 / 0 0 0 0 
ctb 17 58 27 63 / 0 0 0 0 
hln 21 55 26 65 / 0 0 0 0 
bzn 9 48 19 61 / 0 0 0 0 
wey 1 43 6 49 / 10 0 0 0 
dln 18 51 26 59 / 0 0 0 0 
hvr 15 47 19 51 / 0 0 0 0 
lwt 17 52 27 63 / 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Tfx watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Weather.Gov/greatfalls