891 
fxus63 koax 160753 
afdoax 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE 
253 am CDT Tuesday Mar 16 2010 


Discussion... 


Weak flow aloft continues over the region with an upstream 
shortwave trough currently moving southeastward across eastern South Dakota per latest 
satellite imagery. Latest msas surface analysis shows a broad area of 
high pressure extending from the western Dakotas into western Nebraska and Kansas 
while an extensive area of low clouds still exists over the entire 
region. 


Weak qg forcing from middle level shortwave could generate a few 
isolated showers across the eastern portion of the County Warning Area this afternoon. 
With weak cold air advection moving southward today as well...highs will likely be a degree 
or two cooler than yesterday with readings in the lower to middle 40s. 
As for the clouds...expect them to continue to hang around through the 
day and into the overnight. 


On Wednesday...the middle level trough will push south of the area and 
clouds should finally begin to break up from north to south during 
the afternoon. A fairly flat middle/upper level ridge will build into 
the central Continental U.S. By late Wednesday night bringing above normal temperatures 
to the area for Thursday. 


Behind the Flat Ridge...a trough will be digging into the western 
Continental U.S. Which will bring a taste of winter back to the region for 
the early part of the weekend. Medium range models are in fairly 
good agreement at bringing a Lee surface low into eastern Colorado/western Kansas by 
early Friday with a well defined cold front extending northeastward toward southern 
Minnesota. Most precipitation should be Post frontal with rain initially on 
Thursday night in the north...then transitioning over to a rain/snow 
mix from north to south before turning over to all snow Friday 
night. Strong cold air advection on the backside and gusty northwest winds will 
combine to produce a very blustery Saturday. Have adjusted probability of precipitation 
slightly to account for a somewhat slower system. Otherwise...no 
major changes have been made to the extended forecast. 


&& 


Aviation... 
taf sites kofk/koma/klnk 


06z tafs 


Low level cloudiness will probably persist for at least the next 
24 hours. Expect some increase in ceilings as the day GOES on... 
similar to the past few days. Much of the daytime hours should 
see MVFR ceilings and VFR visibilities. Conditions should go back 
down again tonight after 03z. Some light precipitation will be possible as 
an upper level disturbance moves down into our area from Minnesota 
and the eastern Dakotas. 




&& 


Oax watches/warnings/advisories... 
NE...none. 
Iowa...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Kern/Miller