980 
fxus63 klbf 220739 
afdlbf 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service North Platte NE 
239 am CDT Monday Mar 22 2010 


Discussion... 
a cold front will surge south today...and begin moving into extreme 
northern Nebraska by late afternoon. Ahead of the front...west to 
southwest downslope winds and deep mixing will allow temperatures to 
rise into at least the upper 60s...with lower 70s possible. These 
temperatures are a bit above guidance...but guidance has been on the 
cool side lately...and feel the warmer temperatures are warranted in 
the favorable area for heating ahead of the front. This evening...an 
isolated T-storm or two still appears possible across northwest 
Nebraska. Latest 00z NAM continues to indicate some weak middle level 
instability in this area along the front. Divergence/lift is also 
present in left front quadrant of a jet streak. Only a small window for 
any convection however...as instability is all but gone by midnight. 


Tonight through Wednesday...cold front will push south of the 
area...with cooler air filtering in from the north. Upper trough 
will dig from the northern rockies southward into Colorado. Best 
lift and dynamics stay mostly west and southwest of our area...but 
light precipitation is looking more likely across the Panhandle into far 
southwest Nebraska. Best chances will come Tuesday night into 
Wednesday morning during period of best isentropic lift. Precipitation will 
fall in the form of rain Tuesday...but Tuesday night...soundings 
support rain mixing with and changing to snow. Around an inch of wet 
snow could accumulate in the Imperial area of extreme southwest 
Nebraska. 


Ridging to move east into the plains by late week...with warming 
temperatures ahead of next system. Both the latest 00z runs of the 
European model (ecmwf) and GFS close off the system and generate significant precipitation 
across the Central Plains. GFS ensembles support this scenario. Will 
continue to monitor. 


&& 


Aviation...for the kvtn and klbf terminals through 12z Tuesday... 


High cloudiness will be on the increase today across western and 
north central Nebraska as an upper level disturbance and cold front 
approaches the central and northern plains. As the before mentioned 
cold front tracks across western and north central Nebraska this 
evening...ceilings will lower behind the front. By 06z 
tonight...abundant middle level cloudiness aon 6000 feet above ground level is 
expected...ceilings will lower further late Monday night...dropping 
below 2000 feet above ground level by 12z Tuesday. Ceilings at kvtn will approach IFR 
levels by 12z Tuesday morning. 
&& 


Lbf watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Discussion...Taylor 
aviation...buttler