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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas 
637 PM CDT Thursday Jul 24 2008 


Aviation... 
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will move northwest 
acros west central Texas this evening and early tonight. Localized 
MVFR or IFR conditions are possible in the heavy rain which 
accompanies these showers and storms. Late tonight and early 
Friday morning...with high boundary layer moisture...expect low 
cloud development and advection across much of west central Texas. 
Cloud ceilings should be in the range of 1500-2500 feet. Cloud 
ceilings will climb above 3 kft by late Friday morning and 
cloud coverage will gradually decrease during the afternoon. 
East to southeast winds at 5-15 knots are expected during the next 
24 hours. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 332 PM CDT Thursday Jul 24 2008/ 


Short term... 


The center of Tropical Storm Dolly was located just northwest of Laredo 
moving west-northwest at about 10 kts. The NHC forecasts the low center to 
continue to drift westerly around 10 kts...and to be south of the 
Rio Grande near The Big Bend by Friday morning. The outer bands of 
Tropical Storm Dolly were influencing areas generally along and 
south of a San Angelo to San Saba line this afternoon. Temperatures have 
reached the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon north of the rain 
bands...with temperatures within the rain in the 70s. Expect this trend 
with shower activity to continue through the early evening hours 
before the convection contracts closer to the low center overnight. 
Best probability of precipitation will be along and south of a Sterling City to San Saba 
line overnight. For tomorrow...expect the highest probability of precipitation to be 
confined to the SW portion of the County warning forecast area...mainly the western 
portion of the northern Edwards Plateau. Highs will be a couple 
degrees warmer across the southern counties with the rain and 
clouds further west...with highs ranging from the lows 90s to the 
south...to the upper 90s to the north across the Big Country. 


Long term... 


Once the remnants of Dolly move off to the west and southwest...dry 
and hot weather will return to all of west central Texas as the 
upper level ridge center strengthens over Oklahoma and North Texas. 
Afternoon highs will be in the upper 90s to low 100s...with the 
warmest days early to the middle part of next week. Long range model 
guidance is trying to bring a cold front into northern Texas towards 
the end of the forecast period. At this time have made only minor 
changes to the forecast since there is some uncertainty between 
models with the location and intensity of the front on day 7. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Abilene 72 95 72 97 / 20 10 10 0 
San Angelo 71 93 72 98 / 30 20 10 0 
Junction 72 91 70 95 / 30 20 10 0 


&& 


Sjt watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$