548 
fxus64 kcrp 242340 
afdcrp 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas 
640 PM CDT Thursday Jul 24 2008 


Aviation...conditions have improved to VFR across most taf sites 
this evening. However...isolated MVFR ceilings/visibilities will still be 
possible as the outer rain bands of Dolly continue to spin 
northwest through south Texas. Most of this activity should come 
to an end over the next couple of hours as Dolly continues to move 
off to the west and weakens. Klrd has the best chance of shower 
activity lingering overnight due to the proximity of Dolly. All 
shower activity is expected to end by 08z. Enough low level moisture 
will still be in place across south Texas...therefore am expecting 
MVFR ceilings Friday morning near sunrise. Conditions will improve to 
VFR across the region by 18z Friday. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 328 PM CDT Thursday Jul 24 2008/ 


Short term...cleared middle-coast region and coastal waters except 
for the southern bays from the Tornado Watch a little earlier. 
Activity has struggled to develop and laps analysis shows this 
region has little to no helicity. Tornado Watch still in effect 
for the southern coastal Bend west through the Rio Grande plains 
until 6 PM. 


Bands of showers/T-storms with heavy rains continue to move across 
areas of the southern coastal Bend. Since these areas have seen 
quite a bit of rain...will hold onto the Flood Watch until 6 PM. 
Expect the activity will diminish over the coastal plains with the 
loss of heating by early evening. 


Winds will continue to subside and will allow the Wind Advisory to 
expire at 4 PM. 


Dolly will continue to move west-northwest through northern Mexico 
into the Texas Big Bend by Friday afternoon as the upper ridge 
over Oklahoma to Lousiana builds south into the northwest Gulf of 
Mexico. Deep moisture associated with Dolly will be close enough 
to Webb County such that threat for flooding will continue tonight. 
The development of core rains near the center could produce very 
heavy rain amounts although the highest amounts should be in Mexico. 
Will keep the Flash Flood Watch going for Webb County for tonight. 


Drier air will move into the coastal Bend on Friday as the upper 
ridge builds southward. Will keep a slight chance probability of precipitation for the 
coastal plains with a lingering low end chance probability of precipitation out west. 


Long-term (friday night through thursday)...mid/upr ridging will 
build into south Texas from the north through the weekend. A 
drying/warming trend will subsequently ensue through next week. 
Medium range models continue to forecast the center of the ridge to 
remain parked over north-central Texas through the first part of 
next week. The ridge is expected to gradually shift north as a 
middle/upper easterly inverted trough is prognosticated by the GFS/European model (ecmwf) to 
traverse into the western Gulf by late Wednesday and into south 
Texas by Thursday. Increasing moisture/instability/synoptic ascent 
associated with the trough will lead to a slight chance of sea 
breeze convection Thursday afternoon. 


Marine...seas continue to subside with wave heights around 
7 feet at buoy 42020. Winds and seas should remain near marginal 
Small Craft Advisory levels tonight. NAM/GFS show 925mb winds still at 25-30 
knots across the coastal waters on Friday. So at least scec 
conditions are expected with marginal Small Craft Advisory wind speeds possible. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Corpus Christi 79 91 75 93 75 / 30 20 10 10 10 
Victoria 76 93 73 94 74 / 30 20 10 10 10 
Laredo 76 92 78 97 78 / 80 30 10 10 10 
Alice 77 92 74 95 74 / 50 20 10 10 10 
Rockport 80 90 79 91 78 / 30 20 10 10 10 
Cotulla 75 92 74 96 74 / 60 30 10 10 10 
Kingsville 78 92 75 94 76 / 40 20 10 10 10 
Navy corpus 80 89 78 90 78 / 30 20 10 10 10 


&& 


Crp watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...Flood Watch until 4 am CDT Friday for the following zones: Webb. 


GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 am CDT Friday for the following 
zones: coastal waters Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 
nm...coastal waters Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel 
out 20 nm...waters Baffin Bay to Port Aransas 20 to 60 nm... 
waters Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel 20 to 60 nm. 


&& 


$$ 


Krr/97...aviation