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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas 
625 PM CDT Thursday Jul 24 2008 


Aviation... 
high based afternoon cumulus along with some high clouds next 24 hours 
from outer fringes of decaying Tropical Depression Dolly expected at 
all taf sites with VFR conditions continuing as upper level ridge of 
high pressure dominates. 


Andrade 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 239 PM CDT Thursday Jul 24 2008/ 


Discussion... 
no major changes to either the previous forecast or to the grids this 
forecast package. Upper high dominates keeping unseasonably warm and 
continued dry conditions through the weekend and possibly into next 
week as well. Current grids have low end slight chance probability of precipitation Monday 
night across the northwest panhandles...and then slight chance probability of precipitation 
Tuesday and Tuesday night across all of the forecast area. After much 
thought...decided to leave these probability of precipitation alone although have low 
confidence. Medium range models much drier this run than 
previous...with surface low remaining over the Central Plains states 
during the early and middle part of next week with surface trough 
extending southward through the panhandles. Upper ridge forecast to 
remain over West Texas with weak middle and upper level shortwave/S traking 
northeast out of nm and across southeastern Colorado and western/southwestern 
Kansas. This should keep any convection just to the north and west of the 
panhandles...however will leave probability of precipitation alone for now and let later 
shifts lower probability of precipitation if needed. Feel the hot and dry weather will likely 
continue into the middle of next week and the end of the extended 
period. 


Schneider 


Fire weather... 
red flag conditions are not forecast to occur through the middle of 
next week despite the hot and dry weather expected. Relative humidity values should 
remain at or above 20 percent and 20 foot winds expected to be less 
than 20 miles per hour. However...marginal fire weather conditions are expected 
into the weekend. One hour fuels have dried out over the past week to 
week and a half...with fuel moisture contents falling from at or above 
10 percent last week to less than 5 percent this week. However...with 
the fire danger rating forecast to remain at or below the moderate 
category...feel fire weather concerns will remain low for at least the 
next couple of days or so. 


Schneider 


&& 


Ama watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
OK...none. 


&& 


$$