Covington, Louisiana Weather Conditions

Severe Weather Alerts

National Weather Service:

Flood Warning , Flash Flood Watch View All Alerts

Your Weather

To update your location please enter your ZIP code, city, state, airport code or country in the field below. Weather by E-mail: Forecast storm alerts. Weather E-Mail Alert Sign Up »

Current Conditions

  • 64°
  • Thunderstorms and Rain
  • Wind: ESE 4 mph
  • Humidity: 88%
  • Visibility: 7.0 miles
  • Dew Point: 61°
  • Pressure: 29.81 in. -

Select a Section

Click a section below for more information.

Next 12 Hours

8  pm
11  pm
2  am
5  am
8  am
Thunderstorm
T-storms
Thunderstorm
T-storms
Chance of Rain
Chance of Rain
Rain
Rain
Chance of Rain
Chance of Rain
64°
65°
63°
64°
64°
Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Tuesday
  • Chance of a Thunderstorm
  • High: 77 °
  • Low: 53 °
  • Chance of T-Storms
  • Wednesday
  • Mostly Cloudy
  • High: 71 °
  • Low: 50 °
  • Mostly Cloudy
  • Thursday
  • Clear
  • High: 78 °
  • Low: 53 °
  • Clear
  • Friday
  • Clear
  • High: 80 °
  • Low: 53 °
  • Clear
  • Saturday
  • Clear
  • High: 82 °
  • Low: 58 °
  • Clear

Forecast for Covington, Louisiana

Updated: 7:20 PM CDT on January 27, 2015

Flash Flood Watch in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
  • Monday

    Heavy thunderstorms. Lows overnight in the low 60s.

  • Monday Night

    Showers and thunderstorms likely - heavy rainfall is possible, especially this evening. A few storms may be severe. Low 62F. Winds ENE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 100%. Rainfall near an inch.

  • Tuesday

    Mixed clouds and sun with scattered thunderstorms. High 77F. Winds N at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

  • Tuesday Night

    Cloudy. Low 53F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Wednesday

    Mostly cloudy. High 71F. Winds NW at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Wednesday Night

    Partly cloudy skies. Low near 50F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Thursday

    Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds. High 78F. Winds NNW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Thursday Night

    A few clouds. Low 53F. Winds light and variable.

  • Friday

    Sunny. High near 80F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Friday Night

    Clear skies. Low 53F. Winds light and variable.

  • Saturday

    A mainly sunny sky. High 82F. Winds light and variable.

  • Saturday Night

    Clear skies. Low 58F. Winds light and variable.

  • Sunday

    Mostly sunny skies. High 83F. Winds SSE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Clear skies. Low 61F. Winds light and variable.

  • Monday

    Mostly sunny skies. High near 85F. Winds SE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Monday Night

    Partly cloudy skies early followed by increasing clouds with showers developing later at night. Low 66F. Winds SE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Tuesday

    Variable clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. High 84F. Winds SE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

  • Tuesday Night

    Some clouds early will give way to generally clear conditions overnight. Low 69F. Winds SE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Wednesday

    Rain showers in the morning with scattered thunderstorms arriving in the afternoon. High near 85F. Winds SE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

  • Wednesday Night

    Partly cloudy with late night showers or thunderstorms. Low around 70F. Winds SSE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Thursday

    Thunderstorms likely in the morning. Then the chance of scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 86F. Winds SSE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80%.

  • Thursday Night

    Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 72F. Winds S at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

Severe Weather Alert Descriptions

 Flood Warning  Statement as of 10:03 am CDT on April 27, 2015


... Flood Warning extended until further notice...
the Flood Warning continues for
the Pearl River near Pearl River.
* Until further notice.
* At 9:00 am Monday the stage was 14.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Forecast... the river will continue rising to near 14.6 feet by
tomorrow early afternoon then begin falling.
* Impact... at 14.0 feet... secondary roads to the river and throughout
Honey Island Swamp are inundated. Property in the vicinity of the
gage is flooded threatening about 20 homes along the left bank
* impact... at 13.0 feet... the east and west channels of the river will
begin to merge. Honey Island Swamp trails will be under water as
inundation of the swamp begins.


Lat... Lon 3067 8976 3067 8990 3018 8964 3020 8955





1003 am CDT Mon Apr 27 2015

... Flood Warning extended until Friday evening...
the Flood Warning continues for
the Pearl River near Bogalusa.
* Until Friday evening.
* At 9:00 am Monday the stage was 19.9 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Forecast... the river will continue to fall to below flood stage by
Friday afternoon.
* Impact... at 18.5 feet... Woodlands and crop acreage along the river
will be flooded. The Bogue Chitto wildlife management area will be
inundated with water in recreational camps and over access roads.
* Impact... at 17.0 feet... Woodlands and crop acreage along the river
will be flooded.
* Impact... at 16.0 feet... Woodlands along the river and wildlife
management property will be flooded.


Lat... Lon 3100 8969 3100 8979 3067 8990 3067 8976





 Flash Flood Watch  Statement as of 4:11 PM CDT on April 27, 2015


... Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Tuesday
afternoon...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* portions of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi...
including the following areas... in southeast Louisiana...
Ascension... Assumption... East Baton Rouge... East Feliciana...
Iberville... Livingston... lower Jefferson... lower Lafourche...
lower Plaquemines... lower St. Bernard... lower Terrebonne...
northern Tangipahoa... Orleans... Pointe Coupee... southern
Tangipahoa... St. Charles... St. Helena... St. James... St. John
The Baptist... St. Tammany... upper Jefferson... upper
Lafourche... upper Plaquemines... upper St. Bernard... upper
Terrebonne... Washington... West Baton Rouge and West Feliciana.
In southern Mississippi... Amite... Hancock... Harrison...
Jackson... Pearl River... Pike... Walthall and Wilkinson.

* Through Tuesday afternoon

* a potent upper level storm system will impact the region through
Tuesday acting on an abundance of moisture to produce several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms during the period. Heavy
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches had already occurred over many
areas today... and additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches
can be expected through Tuesday with isolated amounts up to 6
inches possible.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.



TD



 Record Report  Statement as of 04:24 PM CDT on April 27, 2015


... Record daily maximum rainfall set at New Orleans...

a record rainfall of 1.74 inches was set at New Orleans today. This
breaks the old record of 1.24 set in 1949.




 Local Storm Report 



04/27/2015 1023 am

3 miles NNW of Kenner, Jefferson Parish.

Tornado, reported by NWS storm survey.


            Multiple trees and power poles uprooted... snapped... or
            bent over between Duncan Canal and the corner of W
            esplanade and Loyola. Minor roof damage also occurred to
            several residences. Roof of a patio lifted off a house.
            Path length 0.5 miles... Max width 50 yards... Max
            estimated winds 90 mph. Rated EF-1.





04/27/2015 1023 am

3 miles NNW of Kenner, Jefferson Parish.

Tornado, reported by NWS storm survey.


            Multiple trees and power poles uprooted... snapped... or
            bent over between Duncan Canal and the corner of W
            esplanade and Loyola. Minor roof damage also occurred to
            several residences. Roof of a patio lifted off a house.
            Path length 0.5 miles... Max width 50 yards... Max
            estimated winds 90 mph. Rated EF-1.





04/27/2015 1026 am

New Orleans armstrbodaux, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind gust m56.00 mph, reported by ASOS.


            New Orleans international wind gust measured at 49 knots
            or 56 mph.




04/27/2015 1028 am

New Orleans armstrbodaux, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind gust m71.00 mph, reported by ASOS.


            Wind gust to 61kt or 70 mph measured at New Orleans
            Armstrong Airport.




04/27/2015 1030 am

Kenner, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by Emergency Mngr.


            Roof blown off house in Kenner.




04/27/2015 1035 am

Metairie, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by Emergency Mngr.


            Emergency management and media report several rail cars
            blown off elevated rail approach to Huey p Long Bridge.
            Time estimated.




04/27/2015 1050 am

Terrytown, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind gust m66.00 mph, reported by co-op observer.


            Coop observer recorded 66 mph gusts.





04/27/2015 1026 am

New Orleans armstrbodaux, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind gust m56.00 mph, reported by ASOS.


            New Orleans international wind gust measured at 49 knots
            or 56 mph.




04/27/2015 1028 am

New Orleans armstrbodaux, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind gust m71.00 mph, reported by ASOS.


            Wind gust to 61kt or 70 mph measured at New Orleans
            Armstrong Airport.




04/27/2015 1030 am

Kenner, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by Emergency Mngr.


            Roof blown off house in Kenner.




04/27/2015 1035 am

Metairie, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by Emergency Mngr.


            Emergency management and media report several rail cars
            blown off elevated rail approach to Huey p Long Bridge.
            Time estimated.




04/27/2015 1050 am

Terrytown, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind gust m66.00 mph, reported by co-op observer.


            Coop observer recorded 66 mph gusts.





04/27/2015 1035 am

Metairie, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by Emergency Mngr.


            Emergency management and media report several rail cars
            blown off elevated rail approach to Huey p Long Bridge.
            Time estimated.





04/27/2015 1035 am

Metairie, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by Emergency Mngr.


            Emergency management and media report several rail cars
            blown off elevated rail approach to Huey p Long Bridge.
            Time estimated.





04/27/2015 1030 am

Kenner, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by Emergency Mngr.


            Roof blown off house in Kenner.





04/27/2015 1030 am

Kenner, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by Emergency Mngr.


            Roof blown off house in Kenner.





04/27/2015 1050 am

Terrytown, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind gust m66 mph, reported by co-op observer.


            Coop observer recorded 66 mph gusts.





04/27/2015 1050 am

Terrytown, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind gust m66 mph, reported by co-op observer.


            Coop observer recorded 66 mph gusts.





04/27/2015 1028 am

New Orleans armstr, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind gust m71 mph, reported by ASOS.


            Wind gust to 61kt or 70 mph measured at New Orleans
            Armstrong Airport.





04/27/2015 1028 am

New Orleans armstr, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind gust m71 mph, reported by ASOS.


            Wind gust to 61kt or 70 mph measured at New Orleans
            Armstrong Airport.





04/27/2015 1026 am

New Orleans armstr, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind gust m56 mph, reported by ASOS.


            New Orleans international wind gust measured at 49 knots
            or 56 mph.





04/27/2015 1026 am

New Orleans armstr, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind gust m56 mph, reported by ASOS.


            New Orleans international wind gust measured at 49 knots
            or 56 mph.




 Public Information Statement  Statement as of 7:34 PM CDT on April 27, 2015


... NWS damage survey for 04/27/15 tornado event...

.Jefferson Parish...

Rating: EF-1
estimated peak wind: 90 mph
path length /statute/: 0.5 miles
path width /maximum/: 50 yards
fatalities: 0
injuries: 0

Start date: April 27 2015
start time: 10:23 am CDT
start location: 2.7 NW Kenner
start lat/lon: 30.0254/-90.2789

End date: April 27 2015
end time: 10:23 am CDT
end location: 2.2 NW Kenner
end_lat/lon: 30.0233/-90.2697

Survey_summary: tornado touched down at the levee of Duncan
Canal north of W esplanade Ave. Bent two wooden power poles
near the apartment complex. Tracked to the east-southeast with
mainly light tree damage and one area of light roof damage on
grandlake Blvd. Then crossed canal no. 17 and lifted the roof
off of the back porch of a house on Tulane Dr. On the opposite
side of Tulane Dr another house had a small portion of its roof
ripped off. Continued to the east-southeast and crossed W
Louisiana state Dr and bent over one wooden power pole and snapped
a second. Tornado then uprooted a hard wood tree in front of a
house on W Loyola. Most significant damage then occurred at the
corner of Loyola and W esplanade. Multiple wooden power poles and
a few trees were snapped. Tornado then quickly lifted as it
crossed W esplanade. In addition to the tornado sporadic light
tree damage occurred south of the track and a large portion of
the facade of a hotel on the corner of Loyola and I 10 service
Road... all due to straight line winds.

EF0... weak... ... 65 to 85 mph
EF1... weak... ... 86 to 110 mph
EF2... strong... .111 to 135 mph
EF3... strong... .136 to 165 mph
EF4... violent... 166 to 200 mph
EF5... violent... >200 mph

Note:
the information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the event and publication in
NWS storm data.

Additional storm surveys will be done tomorrow.



Personal Weather Stations

Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]

Location: Covington near Terra Bella Village, Covington, LA

Updated: 9:02 PM CDT

Temperature: 64.0 °F Dew Point: 63 °F Humidity: 98% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.81 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.03 in Graphs

Location: Evergreen Acres, Covington, LA

Updated: 9:01 PM CDT

Temperature: 63.7 °F Dew Point: 63 °F Humidity: 97% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.70 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.14 in Graphs

Location: River Forest, Covington, LA

Updated: 9:50 PM EDT

Temperature: 63.1 °F Dew Point: 63 °F Humidity: 99% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.69 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: River Forest, Covington, LA

Updated: 9:02 PM CDT

Temperature: 65.5 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 94% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.80 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Milloit Lane, Madisonville, LA

Updated: 9:01 PM CDT

Temperature: 64.2 °F Dew Point: 63 °F Humidity: 95% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.76 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Cherry Laurel Drive, Covington, LA

Updated: 9:01 PM CDT

Temperature: 64.9 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 97% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.86 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.07 in Graphs

Location: Covington, Covington, LA

Updated: 8:49 PM CDT

Temperature: 63.1 °F Dew Point: 62 °F Humidity: 96% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.58 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Near Tchefuncte River Flood Gauge, Covington, LA

Updated: 8:48 PM CDT

Temperature: 63.0 °F Dew Point: 63 °F Humidity: 99% Wind: SSE at 1.1 mph Pressure: 29.48 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Covington / Abita Springs, Covington, LA

Updated: 9:02 PM CDT

Temperature: 62.8 °F Dew Point: 62 °F Humidity: 97% Wind: ENE at 3.1 mph Pressure: 29.90 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.08 in Graphs

Location: NorthPointe Business Park, Covington, LA

Updated: 8:50 PM CDT

Temperature: 63.6 °F Dew Point: 62 °F Humidity: 94% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.79 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.06 in Graphs

Location: Chateau Village Subdivision, Mandeville, LA

Updated: 9:02 PM CDT

Temperature: 63.9 °F Dew Point: 59 °F Humidity: 84% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.68 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.14 in Graphs

Location: Autumn Creek, Madisonville, LA

Updated: 9:02 PM CDT

Temperature: 63.5 °F Dew Point: 63 °F Humidity: 99% Wind: North at 2.0 mph Pressure: 29.49 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Willow Bend, Madisonville, LA

Updated: 9:02 PM CDT

Temperature: 64.2 °F Dew Point: 63 °F Humidity: 97% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.46 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.07 in Graphs

Location: SHARP ROAD, Mandeville, LA

Updated: 9:02 PM CDT

Temperature: 63.3 °F Dew Point: 62 °F Humidity: 94% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.79 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.01 in Graphs

Location: Morningside Drive, Mandeville, LA

Updated: 9:00 PM CDT

Temperature: 65.1 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 97% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.66 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Windermere Subdivision, Madisonville, LA

Updated: 9:02 PM CDT

Temperature: 64.0 °F Dew Point: 63 °F Humidity: 97% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.79 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.12 in Graphs

Location: Deval Estates, Mandeville, LA

Updated: 9:02 PM CDT

Temperature: 63.3 °F Dew Point: 62 °F Humidity: 97% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.64 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Magnolia Ridge Drive, Mandeville, LA

Updated: 9:00 PM CDT

Temperature: 64.8 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 99% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.83 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Mandeville, Mandeville, LA

Updated: 9:00 PM CDT

Temperature: 63.9 °F Dew Point: - Humidity: - Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.74 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Tanager Drive, Mandeville, LA

Updated: 9:00 PM CDT

Temperature: 64.9 °F Dew Point: 65 °F Humidity: 99% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.73 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Woodlands, Mandeville, LA

Updated: 9:01 PM CDT

Temperature: 63.0 °F Dew Point: 62 °F Humidity: 97% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.82 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.21 in Graphs

Location: Soult Street/Molitor Street, Mandeville, LA

Updated: 9:01 PM CDT

Temperature: 63.5 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 100% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.83 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.12 in Graphs

Location: The Timbers, Mandeville, LA

Updated: 9:00 PM CDT

Temperature: 63.0 °F Dew Point: 62 °F Humidity: 96% Wind: ENE at 1.5 mph Pressure: 29.78 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.09 in Graphs

Location: Bayou Acres, Mandeville, LA

Updated: 8:48 PM CDT

Temperature: 63.3 °F Dew Point: 63 °F Humidity: 98% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.81 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Hunt Compound, Ponchatoula, LA

Updated: 9:02 PM CDT

Temperature: 64.2 °F Dew Point: 63 °F Humidity: 97% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.51 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.50 in Graphs

Location: Huckleberry Lane, Folsom, LA

Updated: 9:00 PM CDT

Temperature: 63.2 °F Dew Point: 62 °F Humidity: 97% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.77 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Tartan Trce, Covington, LA

Updated: 9:00 PM CDT

Temperature: 63.9 °F Dew Point: 62 °F Humidity: 94% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.85 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.03 in Graphs

Location: Dragonfly, Bush, LA

Updated: 9:02 PM CDT

Temperature: 62.0 °F Dew Point: 61 °F Humidity: 95% Wind: ESE at 4.0 mph Pressure: 29.69 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.09 in Graphs

Location: Bayou Canada West, Ponchatoula, LA

Updated: 8:51 PM CDT

Temperature: 63.5 °F Dew Point: 63 °F Humidity: 99% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.80 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: APRSWXNET, Ponchatoula, LA

Updated: 8:34 PM CDT

Temperature: 64 °F Dew Point: 63 °F Humidity: 98% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.81 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: RAWS, Lacombe, LA

Updated: 7:47 PM CDT

Temperature: 63 °F Dew Point: 62 °F Humidity: 98% Wind: NE at 2 mph Pressure: - Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Bayou Canada North, Ponchatoula, LA

Updated: 9:02 PM CDT

Temperature: 63.5 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 100% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.81 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.16 in Graphs

Location: Bayou Canada South, Ponchatoula, LA

Updated: 9:02 PM CDT

Temperature: 63.5 °F Dew Point: 63 °F Humidity: 98% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.80 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.43 in Graphs

Location: Bush, Bush, LA

Updated: 9:01 PM CDT

Temperature: 61.7 °F Dew Point: 61 °F Humidity: 98% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.72 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.14 in Graphs

Location: Oak Mill, Lacombe, LA

Updated: 9:02 PM CDT

Temperature: 63.3 °F Dew Point: 62 °F Humidity: 97% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.78 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: HADS, Sun, LA

Updated: 8:15 PM CDT

Temperature:  °F Dew Point: - Humidity: - Wind: ENE at 5 mph Pressure: - Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Hickory, Pearl River, LA

Updated: 8:57 PM CDT

Temperature: 64.1 °F Dew Point: 61 °F Humidity: 90% Wind: ENE at 2.0 mph Pressure: 29.62 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.06 in Graphs

MSN Maps of:

Temp: Dew Point: Humidity Wind Pressure Hr Precip -

NWS Forecaster Discussion



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
813 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING IS DEPICTING A MODIFIED ENVIRONMENT AT
LOW LEVELS FROM THE CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY. WINDS ARE EASTERLY
FROM THE SFC TO 750 MB THEN SWITCH TO WESTERLY. THERE IS A 10 F
INVERSION FROM THE SFC TO 900 MB... WHICH IMPLIES CONVECTION TO
THE NORTH THIS EVENING IS ELEVATED. SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A MORE RICH
MARITIME AIRMASS FROM THE GULF WOULD RESULT IN A MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE COAST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP
HOWEVER AT ABOUT 7.3 C/KM. THE JET MAX IS 120 KTS AT 160 MB AND PW
IS ABOVE NORMAL AT 1.46 INCHES. 
KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/ 

SHORT TERM...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
POTENT STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WAVES OF ENERGY IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. IT WAS A BUSY MORNING WITH
NUMEROUS SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS AND SOME REPORTS OF FLOODING.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA HAVE BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. CURRENT
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS STORMS TO THE WEST
MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION. LARGE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
THE LAST COUPLE HOURS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...OFF THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST...WILL LIKELY GROW IN NUMBER AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
WEST TO SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EITHER LATE THIS
EVENING OR AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER
FORECAST REASONING AND THE TRENDS OF THE LATEST 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
QPF FORECASTS. IT IS ANTICIPATED THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN SINGLE CELLS...CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS...AND THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE AND FAST MOVEMENT SHOULD HOLD THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DOWN IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS EVENING...AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LARGER SWATHS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH EMBEDDED
HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THESE AMOUNTS
ARE REALIZED OR EXCEEDED...THERE WILL BE MAXIMIZED RAINFALL
EFFICIENCY THAT COULD DROP SOME 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS IN A ONE TO
TWO HOUR PERIOD. FOR THAT REASON...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
OBVIOUSLY NEEDED TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE
LEFT THE WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 PM TUESDAY.

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. BASED ON THE RECENT HISTORY OF
SEVERE TRENDS...THE STRONG DYNAMICS...IMPRESSIVE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AS HIGH AS AROUND 2
INCHES...WILL ALL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING RAINS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. 

IMPROVEMENT WILL BE ON THE HORIZON STARTING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MUCH DRIER
AIR MOVES IN.

LONG TERM...

THE DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR LATE
IN THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A
REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO ONLY A FEW
PASSING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA HAS NO
MENTION OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AND MUCH OF THIS
TIME WILL BE COMPLETELY CLEAR WITH LOW HUMIDITY. 22/TD

AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS 
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE 
LEFT VCTS IN MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT ANOTHER AREA 
OF STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND SHOULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS 
FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY AFTER 06Z.

MARINE...

AFTER AN EVENTFUL MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS ARE FINALLY 
PUSHING OUT OF THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED 
THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO DEVELOP
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND THEY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE LOCAL COASTAL
WATERS TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP SHIFT WINDS FROM AN EASTERLY AND
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TO NW. WITH THE LOW MOVING EAST SLOWLY...NW
WIND SPEEDS WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW ON
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL START ONCE AGAIN BY NEXT WEEK. 13/MH

DECISION SUPPORT... 
DSS CODE...ORANGE
DEPLOYED...NAVY WEEK. 
ACTIVATION...NONE. 
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL 
 MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 
 

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH       
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT 
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  71  51  66 /  90  50  20  10 
BTR  64  75  52  68 /  90  40  20  10 
ASD  67  77  55  68 / 100  50  20  10 
MSY  69  79  57  67 / 100  40  20  10 
GPT  66  75  58  69 / 100  60  30  20 
PQL  65  78  58  70 / 100  70  40  20 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ034>037-039-
     040-046>050-056>072.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ536-538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ538-550-552-
     555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations

Expanded Version (without abbreviations)

Powered by the Weather Underground, Inc.