068 
FXUS64 KSHV 210323
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
923 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

...AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE COMING...

.DISCUSSION...
ISENTROPICALLY-GENERATED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS 
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN 
ON THE LIGHT SIDE SINCE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH MOST PLACES RECEIVING 
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.  

THE DRIVING FORCE FOR ALL OF THE WEATHER REMAINS AN UPPER-LEVEL 
STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY THIS EVENING.  AS 
IT CONTINUES PUSHING EASTWARD...LOOK FOR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO 
CONTINUE OFF-AND-ON THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HEADS 
TOWARD SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.

FOR THE MOST PART...THE ONGOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GREAT 
SHAPE.  I HAVE ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS 
BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA.  THIS HAS RESULTED IN SLIGHTLY WARMER 
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES /BASED UPON THE LOCAL DIURNAL CURVE/...AND 
THE UPDATED NUMBERS ARE LISTED BELOW FOR YOUR PERUSAL.  NO 
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE OTHERWISE MADE AT THIS TIME.

ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND SHOULD BE POSTED TO THE INTERNET.  AN 
UPDATED SUITE OF TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.  /21/

&&

.AVIATION...
OFF AND ON LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING AT THE WESTERN TAF SITES AND 
AT SHV. HAVE PUT SHRA IN AS PREVAILING WITH TEMPO GROUPS RESERVED 
FOR LOWER VSBY AND LOWER CIGS WHICH ARENT CORRESPONDING WITH THE 
SHOWERS. VFR CIGS FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR CIGS AT 
MOST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED IFR CIGS AT 
LFK THROUGH 21/15Z. AFTER 21/15Z...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO 
VFR BY 21/21Z AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE FOUR STATE 
AREA. VSBYS MAY LOWER TO MVFR IN RAIN AT TIMES THROUGH 21/12Z. EAST 
SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AS A SURFACE 
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST. 
/04/  


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  52  60  42  68  45 /  60  60  30  10   0 
MLU  51  59  43  66  42 /  40  60  40  10   0 
DEQ  52  61  41  65  45 /  40  40  30  10   0 
TXK  50  60  44  66  44 /  50  50  30  10   0 
ELD  49  60  42  65  43 /  30  50  40  10   0 
TYR  54  60  45  69  49 /  60  50  20  10   0 
GGG  53  60  43  69  47 /  60  50  20  10   0 
LFK  51  61  41  70  48 /  70  60  20  10   0 

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECASTER... D. BUTTS
AVIATION FORECASTER... STELLMAN