535 
FXUS64 KJAN 211638 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1038 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.UPDATE...LOOKS LIKE A CLOUDY...RAINY AND DREARY SATURDAY IN 
STORE FOR MUCH OF THE ARKLAMISS. RAIN SHIELD...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC 
LOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER ATTENDANT WARM FRONT...LOCATED ACROSS 
MUCH OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...MOVING NORTH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. MUCH OF THIS SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE AND 
MOSTLY RAIN THOUGH THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 
SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE BEST CONCENTRATION FOR 
RAIN WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUTH...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME LIGHT 
RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS. LOCAL WRF MODELS INDICATE THIS RAIN 
SHIELD TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH MORE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH WHERE DRIER AIR EXISTS. 

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO HANDLE THIS SCENARIO DECENTLY. ADJUSTED 
POPS DOWN NORTH JUST A TAD AS RAIN SHIELD IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND 
TRIED TO ADJUST THE TIMING BETTER IN WX GRIDS. ALSO ADJUSTED HIGHS 
TODAY UPWARD AS SOME HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED THE FORECASTED HIGHS. 
HOURLY TEMPS ADJUSTED AS WELL. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL 
BRING LOWERING CEILINGS AND RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA LATER THIS 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AT 
HBG/MEI/JAN DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS 
BECOMING POSSIBLE AT HBG/MEI DURING THE EARLY EVNG AS HEAVIER 
RAINFALL ATTEMPTS TO MOVE INTO SRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. 
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL BUT COULD SUPPORT A LITTLE TSTM 
ACTIVITY AT HBG/MEI. IT LOOKS LIKE GLH/GWO/GTR WILL STAY IN VFR 
CATEGORY FOR MOST OF THE RAIN EVENT GIVEN THE DRY AIR CURRENTLY IN 
PLACE. AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT AND MOVE ACROSS THE 
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...STRATUS COULD BECOME 
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS AT ALL 
SITES. THE STRATUS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /EC/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/EC