127
abio10 pgtw 220400
msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian Ocean
/reissued/220400z-221800zmar2010//
ref/a/msg/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/220221zmar2010//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone formation alert.//
Rmks/
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
B. Tropical disturbance summary:
(1) the area of convection previously located near 7.5s 89.0e,
is now located near 9.9s 89.4e, approximately 460 nm west-northwest
of Cocos Island. Recent animated infrared satellite imagery and a
212326z SSMI pass show a well organized low level circulation center
(LLCC) with a deep band of convection wrapping from the southern
periphery into the northeastern quadrant of the LLCC. Surface
conditions remain favorable with sea surface temperatures near 29
celsius. Upper level analysis indicates that an anticyclone to the
east of the LLCC is providing good poleward outflow with vertical
wind shear (vws) decreasing over the past 12 hours to a moderate
level. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 30 to 35
knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1000 mb.
See ref a (wtxs21 pgtw 220230) for further details. Based on the
consolidation of the LLCC, favorable surface conditions, and vws
supporting upper level outflow, the potential for the development of
a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded
to good.
(2) no other suspect areas.
3. Justification for reissue: upgraded para 2.B.(1) to good.//
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