Tropical Weather Outlook
Statement as of 1:00 am EST on November 4, 2009

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

Cloudiness and showers associated with an area of low pressure in
the extreme southwestern Caribbean Sea continue to show signs of
organization.  The low is expected to move little over the next day
or so...and upper-level winds are favorable for some additional
development.  There is a medium chance...30 to 50 percent...of this
system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. 
Locally heavy rains are possible over the next few days over
portions of Panama...Costa Rica...Nicaragua...and Honduras in
association with this system. 

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
Forecaster Pasch








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