008

abpw10 pgtw 240600
msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans/240600z-250600zjul2008//
ref/a/msg/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/240551zjul2008//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone formation alert.//
Rmks/
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection previously located near 21.4n
132.7e, is now located near 21.1n 132.5e, approximately 405 nm
southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Animated infrared satellite imagery and
a 232252z ssmis image indicate improved consolidation of the low-
level circulation center (LLCC) over the past 12 hours with
persistent convective banding along the southern periphery. Recent
scatterometer and surface data show that the LLCC is embedded within
a monsoon depression with stronger winds along the southern semi-
Circle. Upper-level analysis depicts a marginal, but improving,
environment with weak to moderate vertical wind shear and fair
diffluence aloft. The models indicate that the upper-level trough
(currently inhibiting convection over the north semi-circle) will
weaken leaving broad diffluent, easterly flow which should allow the
system to develop further. Maximum sustained surface winds are
estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated
to be near 1002 mb. Due to enhanced convection and an improved LLCC,
the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone
within the next 24 hours is upgraded to good. See ref a (wtpn21 pgtw
240600) for further details.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
Forecast team: Delta//

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