312
abpw10 pgtw 211400
msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans/211400z-220600znov2009//
rmks/
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
B. Tropical disturbance summary:
(1) the area of convection previously located near 6.9n
128.8e, is now located near 6.7n 129.0e, approximately 330 nm west
of Palau. Animated multispectral satellite imagery shows improved
consolidation of the deep convection over an increasingly symmetric
low level circulation center (LLCC), as seen in the 202138z Quikscat
pass. Additionally, the 210038z trmm microwave image reveals
multiple low level bands starting to converge into the LLCC.
However, it appears the system still lacks good outflow and the deep
convection is being sheared slightly to the west. Maximum sustained
surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level
pressure is estimated to be near 1007 mb. The potential for the
development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24
hours remains fair.
(2) an area of convection previously located near 5.9n 146.9e,
is now located near 5.9n 148.1e, approximately 485 nm south-
southeast of Guam. Animated infrared satellite imagery and a
210851z ssmis microwave image show increasing organization of deep
convection with multiple bands starting to wrap into a developing
low level circulation center (LLCC) embedded within the monsoon
trough. A 202315z ascat pass reveals the LLCC as well as a westerly
wind burst of 20-knot winds. Environmental analysis indicates the
system has an anticyclone aloft, enabling the system to have radial
outflow and consolidate under minimal vertical wind shear.
Additionally, an upper-level low located about 25 degrees northeast
of the system appears to be enhancing the system's poleward outflow.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.
Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1007 mb. Due to
the recent organization of deep convection and favorable
environmental conditions, the potential for the development of a
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to
good.
(3) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
3. Justification for reissue: updated para 1.B.(1) and upgraded para
1.B.(2) to good.//
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