906
axpz20 knhc 242139
twdep
Tropical weather discussion
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jul 24 2008
Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n...east of 140w.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...Special feature...
Tropical Storm Genevieve centered near 15.4n 112.9w...or about
490 nm SSW of Cabo San Lucas Mexico...at 24/2100 UTC moving W at
6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers miatcmep3/wtpz23 knhc
for more details. Genevieve appears slightly better organized on
visible satellite imagery as it battles through a region of
below optimal sea surface temperatures. A region of numerous
strong convection can be found withing 80 nm in the NW quadrant
with scattered moderate/isolated strong convection found within
100 nm elsewhere.
...Tropical waves...
Tropical wave along 85w N of 04n moving W 10-15 kt. The wave
transverses the ITCZ...with the bulk of the convection W of the
wave and within 250 nm of the ITCZ E of 99w. Isolated moderate
to strong convection can also be found E of the wave generally
within 75 nm of the coast of Costa Rica and Panama.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ axis is centered from 08n80w to 09n100w to 12n120w to
09n130w to 08n140w. Scattered moderate/isolated strong from
06n-12n between 115w-139w and isolated moderate/strong from
06n-12n between 96w-108w.
...Discussion...
The mid latitude trough over the northeast Pacific currently
approaching 30n will be little match for the formidable ridge
extending from the Southern Plains W across the SW and expected
to expand farther W into the Pacific along 32n over the next day
or so. The mid level remnant of Fausto is expected to be pushed
W along the edge of this expanding ridge axis as the low level
circulation weakens. At the same time...the ridge should
prevent any significant gain in latitude for Tropical Storm
Genevieve which will remain tucked to its S.
Farther east...the deep circulation associated with Tropical
Depression Dolly will meander W across northern Mexico and
continue to bring heavy rain mainly S of the Rio Grande through
tomorrow. Thereafter...the remnant of Dolly should cross the
Sierra Madre Occidental where its moisture...coupled with the
surge of moisture passing N up the Gulf of California on the
backside of Genevieve...will allow for significant convection
over the northern and central Gulf of California waters over the
weekend.
To the south...cross-equatorial flow from the se to S is
dominant S of 08n...while NE to E trade wind flow prevails in
much of the region between 08n and 20n aside from the features
discussed above.
$$
Schauer Clark
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