Updated: 2:17 AM EST on January 04, 2015
Rain and snow in the morning turning to all snow in the afternoon. Some sleet may mix in. High 34F. Winds NNW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of precip 100%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected.
Snow in the evening will give way to lingering snow showers overnight. Low near 15F. Winds N at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 80%. Snow accumulating 1 to 3 inches.
Cloudy skies early, followed by partial clearing. High 23F. Winds NNW at 10 to 15 mph.
A mostly clear sky. Low 2F. Winds NNE at 5 to 10 mph.
A mainly sunny sky. High 29F. Winds S at 5 to 10 mph.
A mostly clear sky. Low near 15F. Winds SSW at 5 to 10 mph.
Mostly sunny skies. High 42F. Winds SW at 10 to 15 mph.
Partly cloudy skies. Low 18F. Winds W at 10 to 15 mph.
Partly cloudy. High near 45F. Winds SW at 5 to 10 mph.
Partly cloudy. Low 28F. Winds SW at 5 to 10 mph.
A few passing clouds, otherwise generally sunny. High 47F. Winds SSW at 5 to 10 mph.
A mostly clear sky. Low 29F. Winds S at 5 to 10 mph.
Plentiful sunshine. High around 55F. Winds SSW at 5 to 10 mph.
Mostly clear skies. Low around 35F. Winds SSW at 5 to 10 mph.
Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High around 60F. Winds SE at 5 to 10 mph.
Partly cloudy skies. Low near 35F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph.
Partly cloudy skies. High 57F. SE winds shifting to NNE at 10 to 15 mph.
A few clouds. Low around 40F. Winds NE at 5 to 10 mph.
Considerable cloudiness with occasional rain showers. High 51F. Winds NE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Cloudy with occasional rain showers. Low 41F. Winds ENE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50%.
Rain showers early with mostly cloudy conditions later in the day. High 58F. Winds E at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50%.
Cloudy with occasional rain showers. Low 43F. Winds ESE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50%.
... Winter Storm Warning now in effect from 8 am EST /7 am CST/
this morning to 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Thursday...
The Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 8 am EST /7 am
CST/ this morning to 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Thursday.
* Timing: rain will transition to sleet by mid morning and then
change over to snow around lunch time... with the snow becoming
heavy at times late Wednesday afternoon into the night. Snow
ends Thursday morning.
* Accumulations: 6 to 10 inches. Localized higher amounts
* Main impact: major travel disruptions this afternoon
through Thursday morning. Plan on snow covered roads and
dangerous travel conditions. Snow rates may be intense...
resulting in rapid accumulations.
* Other impacts: north winds gusting up to 20 mph Wednesday
night. This combined with the weight of the snow could result
in scattered power outages and downed trees.
Travel will be treacherous with some roads nearly impassable.
Have an emergency kit of blankets... food... water and flashlights
if you must travel. Power outages are likely.
... The Flood Warning remains in effect until 1030 am EST for northern
Trimble... DuBois... northern Crawford... northern Clark... northwestern
Harrison... Jefferson... Orange... Washington and Scott counties...
At 521 am EST... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated
heavy rainfall from repeated rain showers over the warned area. 1.5
to 2.5 inches of rain has fallen over the area and will combine with
runoff from recent snow melt to create areal flooding this morning.
Additional rainfall amounts of up to 1 inch are possible in the
warned area this morning.
Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross
safely. Move to higher ground.
Lat... Lon 3891 8520 3871 8520 3873 8532 3861 8522
3842 8603 3824 8657 3826 8657 3825 8679
3821 8679 3821 8708 3851 8708 3853 8669
3869 8668 3869 8631 3876 8629 3878 8620
3873 8588 3882 8577 3883 8562 3892 8553
Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]
Location: Courthouse Square, Jasper, IN
Updated: 6:06 AM EST
|Temperature: 39.4 °F||Dew Point: 37 °F||Humidity: 90%||Wind: North at -||Pressure: 30.00 in||Hourly Precipitation: -||Windchill: 39 °F||Graphs|
Location: Kellerville, Dubois, IN
Updated: 6:08 AM EST
|Temperature: 35.2 °F||Dew Point: 35 °F||Humidity: 98%||Wind: Calm||Pressure: 29.94 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.04 in||Windchill: 35 °F||Graphs|
Location: Rusk Indiana, Shoals, IN
Updated: 6:09 AM EST
|Temperature: 35.2 °F||Dew Point: 35 °F||Humidity: 98%||Wind: WSW at 1.7 mph||Pressure: 29.94 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.05 in||Windchill: 35 °F||Graphs|
Updated: 4:46 AM EST
|Temperature: 38 °F||Dew Point: 38 °F||Humidity: 100%||Wind: NNW at 3 mph||Pressure: -||Hourly Precipitation: 0.10 in||Windchill: 38 °F||Graphs|
Location: White Ridge, Washington, IN
Updated: 6:09 AM EST
|Temperature: 35.1 °F||Dew Point: 33 °F||Humidity: 94%||Wind: Calm||Pressure: 29.98 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 35 °F||Graphs|
Location: KC9ZAR, Washington, IN
Updated: 6:05 AM EST
|Temperature: 34.5 °F||Dew Point: 34 °F||Humidity: 96%||Wind: North at 3.0 mph||Pressure: 29.95 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 34 °F||Graphs|
Updated: 5:09 AM CST
|Temperature: 34.9 °F||Dew Point: 34 °F||Humidity: 96%||Wind: NW at 3.0 mph||Pressure: 29.97 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 35 °F||Graphs|
Location: Tennyson Indiana, Tennyson, IN
Updated: 5:09 AM CST
|Temperature: 37.8 °F||Dew Point: 34 °F||Humidity: 87%||Wind: North at 3.1 mph||Pressure: 29.66 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.02 in||Windchill: 36 °F||Graphs|
Location: RAWS TIPSAW LAKE IN US, Leopold, IN
Updated: 4:11 AM CST
|Temperature: 40 °F||Dew Point: 40 °F||Humidity: 100%||Wind: North at 1 mph||Pressure: -||Hourly Precipitation: 0.06 in||Windchill: 40 °F||Graphs|
MSN Maps of:
|Temp:||Dew Point:||Humidity||Wind||Pressure||Hr Precip||-|
Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Louisville Kentucky 326 am EST Wed Mar 4 2015 Short term (now through thursday)... issued at 325 am EST Wed Mar 4 2015 ..flooding threat ongoing and winter threat imminent... Well-advertised plume of deep moisture is bringing moderate rains to a large portion of the region early this morning. Given saturated grounds and some residual snows have had some reports of higher water in typically flood prone areas. Thus issued an earlier areal Flood Warning across our northern stripe of counties. Still monitoring area rivers and have several warnings out for those already for forecast rain amounts. This forecast package will have an additional 1-3 inches of liquid qpf, with the peak axis running from Morgantown to Bardstown to Lexington. The northern stripe of counties in in should get another inch to inch and a half, with the most liquid falling to daybreak then transitioning over to a wintry mix. Given higher liquid qpfs through the daytime period, decided to expand the Flood Watch through 00z Thursday. Day shift can cancel the back side of it as snow becomes the dominant p-type. Speaking of that mix, an amdar sounding out of ind at 06z indicated a warm nose around 800 mb which translated to a -rapl report. The GFS had the best handle on the strength and depth of this nose, with the NAM similar but not as strong. Thus for this package leaned the maxtaloft forecast more towards the GFS, but did blend some with the NAM. Based on that thinking, have shifted transition times a little. In most cases have from north to south a period of an hour or two with a rapl mix then just pl then a transition to snow. That transition should start in our far northern counties in the 10-12z time frame, in Louisville in the 14-16z time frame, Lex 16-18z, and bwg 21-23z. The precip type should go to all snow over our north in the 15-17z time frame, then 19-21z for Louisville, 23-01z for Lex, and 01-03z for bwg. Given the earlier start time in the north, decided to add a segment to our Winter Storm Warning to get it started around daybreak north of the Ohio River and including Trimble County. Also pushed the now "middle" segment of the warning to start at 17z. Could have gotten cute and added a fourth segment to allow a later start time for the southern part of that middle segment, but three already seems like too many. Will give a good description of transition times in briefing slides online, so check those out. The period for heaviest snowfall would appear to be from 00-06z, as a jet strengthens over Michigan, with our area in the right rear quadrant of the jet, allowing for maximum lift here. Profiles also show heavier bands of snow possible with rates of 2"/hour possible where those bands set up. Snow totals are from the forecast quantitative precipitation forecast and steadily increasing snow ratios through the period. Still have a Max along the corridor from Hartford to Shepherdsville to Georgetown with 10-12" areal averages. Have values of 6-8" across my far north and 4-7" along my Tennessee border. Those southern counties may see a brief period of freezing rain this evening as temperatures crash down there with sunset. Have ice accumulations a little under a tenth of an inch down there to account for that possibility. As for temperatures, our warmest values should be this morning, with readings holding steady or declining through the rest of the day. Lows tonight mostly will be in the teens and highs Thursday in the 20s. Those readings on Thursday would break record cold high temperatures for the day. Long term (thursday night through tuesday)... issued at 200 PM EST Mon Mar 3 2015 Thursday night - Friday night... ..temperature records in jeopardy... The center of the Arctic high pressure will slide over the area by Friday morning, with any lingering stratocu diminishing after the first half of the evening. Winds may not go completely calm, so with the potential of lingering clouds and some light winds don't think we'll have perfect radiational cooling. Given that, am reluctant to go as low as some of the raw guidance would suggest. Although, it is still possible given the expected fresh snowpack. Overall will keep forecast lows generally in the 0 to -3 range over the heaviest snowpack just south of the river. Will go 0 to 6 above north of the river and across south central Kentucky where less snowpack is expected. For Friday, agree with previous forecast that areas under the fresh snowpack will likely not make it out of the mid 20s, with southern Kentucky most likely to see highs in the 30s. Based on the Thursday night and Friday temps, below are some records that may come into jeopardy. Here are those records for our area: Mar 5 Mar 6 record cold highs record cold lows Bwg 27 1960 1 1960 sdf 26, 1960 -1, 1960* fft 22, 1960 -3, 1960* Lex 22, 1960 -2, 1960* * indicates the all-time March record low Will be cold again on Friday night, although not as cold as a steady southerly flow combines with some mid and upper level sky cover. Will go 10 to 15 above over the snowpack with upper teens possible in our extreme north and south. Saturday - Tuesday... ..dry with temperatures moderating back toward and above normal... Shallow northwest flow aloft should dominate the upper air pattern, with weak surface ridging also in place. This will lead to dry conditions with temperatures gradually trying to moderate. There will be a few disturbances that pass through the northwest flow aloft, but they all appear to be moisture starved and doubt we'll see much more than an increase in sky cover with each passage. Did try to keep the snowpack in mind through the weekend, keeping temps down over where the best snow cover is anticipated. Will likely have to be more dramatic with these values at least through the weekend should the snow be fully realized. By Saturday, temps should warm to the upper 30s (snowpack) and low 40s elsewhere. Saturday night lows will still find their way into the low 20s. It is Worth noting that we should be able to work on melting any existing snow pretty heavily through the end of the weekend, and that may lead to more flooding concerns as we add to the already swollen river/streams and saturated ground. Temps begin to make progress toward the normal mark on Sunday and Monday with highs in the mid 40s Sunday and in the 45 to 50 range on Monday. We could be above normal by Tuesday with highs in the mid 50s as the upper flow flattens out. && Aviation (06z taf update)... issued at 1240 am EST Wed Mar 4 2015 Complicated winter forecast, with plume of moisture across the region causing rain showers. Winds already have become northwesterly, as a thin boundary on radar has crossed each of the sites in the past few hours. This is not the Arctic front, which will push through tomorrow afternoon. The second front will bring a transition to winter precip, likely starting with rain mixing with sleet then a transition to snow. Moisture will be slow to exit the region, so plan on a long period of snow to end the tafs. Have gone low end IFR to LIFR for now with these snows, but conditions could be close to airfield mins at times under bands of heavy snowfall. && Lmk watches/warnings/advisories... Kentucky...Winter Storm Warning from 8 am this morning to 1 PM EST Thursday for kyz032. Flood Watch through this evening for kyz023>043-045>049-053>057- 061>067-070>078-081-082. Winter Storm Warning from 11 am EST /10 am CST/ this morning to 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Thursday for kyz023>031-033>043-045>049- 053>057-061>065-070>072. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Thursday for kyz066-067-073>078-081-082. In...Winter Storm Warning from 8 am EST /7 am CST/ this morning to 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Thursday for inz076>079-083-084-089>092. Flood Watch through this evening for inz084-089>092. && $$ Short term........rjs long term.........Bjs aviation..........rjs