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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Thursday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 70 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Friday
• 
• High: 93 °
• Low: 63 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 64 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 68 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Monday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 68 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la 
823 PM CDT Wednesday may 22 2013 


Sounding discussion... 
no problems with flight this evening. Despite air mass being 
worked over by qlcs this morning...moisture recovered with 5 
degree or less spread from surface to 630 mb...residual 
altocumulus deck at 11 kft with saturated layer indicated under 
elevated subsidence inversion from 630 mb to 560 mb...then a dry 
column aloft. Winds calm at surface quickly turn southwest 15-20kt 
to 10kft...veering to northwest into lower stratosphere 20-60kt. 
Peak wind 265/56kt at 43.3kft. Balloon terminated at 33239m/109051 
feet or 20.6 miles over western Hancock County near bayou lacroix. 
The flight did reach as far east as Hollywood casino area 26 miles 
downrange before easterly winds in upper stratosphere brought the 
balloon within 12 miles of launch site. 24/rr 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 317 PM CDT Wednesday may 22 2013/ 


Discussion... 


An upper level disturbance continues to move eastward this 
afternoon. Although thunderstorm activity has decreased in 
coverage...a few thunderstorms still remain. Through the remaining 
afternoon hours...most of the activity will affect Terrebonne and 
possibly Lafourche parishes before moving over the northern Gulf. 


A trough will begin to set up over the northeastern states tomorrow. 
This will allow for a wedge or otherwise known as a backdoor front 
to move in from the northeast late Thursday into Friday. We could 
see additional showers and possibly brief thunderstorms along the 
front before clearing skies and a ridge of high pressure moves in 
time for the weekend. 


Expect for daytime temperatures to remain near normal this weekend 
especially with the expected sunshine. However...the lower 
dewpoints will make conditions feel slightly more pleasant. 
Overnight temperatures will be running below normal especially for 
the Northshore. 


Ridge breaks down by Monday as the center of the high shifts more 
to the east allowing for a southerly flow to once again establish 
itself across the region. Expect moisture to increase during the 
week and temperatures to continue to rise quite possibly above 
normal. Moisture should be deep enough to allow the afternoon 
Summer like storm by middle week. 


7/arm 


Aviation... 


18z taf discussion...scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms 
continue to impact southeast la and S MS. Outside of any convection... 
expect VFR conditions to prevail through the afternoon hours. With 
increased moisture and light winds forecast overnight...low ceilings 
and patchy fog will once again be possible. Have included tempo 
groups at nearly all taf sites for MVFR or IFR ceilings and/or visibilities. 
Expect conditions to improve after sunrise. 


Marine... 


High pressure ridge will establish itself across the area 
beginning on Friday and continue through the weekend. As a 
result...this will produce an offshore flow. There is some 
potential...especially in the eastern waters...of a period of 
exercise caution conditions Friday night into Saturday morning as 
drier air works in. Onshore flow returns Sunday night and will 
continue through much of next week. 


Decision support... 
dss code...blue. 
Deployed...none. 
Activation...none. 
Activities...slurry support. 
Monitoring river flooding. 
Monitoring convection and heavy rainfall trends. 


Decision support services (dss) code legend 
green = no weather impacts that require action 
blue = long fused watch/warning/advisory in effect or high 
visibility event 
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused 
watch/warning/advisory issuances; radar support 
Orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk severe; nearby 
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes 
red = full engagement for moderate to high risk severe 
and/or direct tropical threats; events of National 
significance 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
mcb 86 65 90 65 / 70 10 20 20 
btr 86 68 91 69 / 80 10 20 10 
asd 85 68 89 68 / 100 10 20 20 
msy 85 70 88 71 / 100 10 20 10 
gpt 83 68 87 69 / 100 10 20 20 
pql 85 67 87 66 / 90 10 20 20 


&& 


Lix watches/warnings/advisories... 
la...none. 
GM...none. 
MS...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$