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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 73 °
• Thunderstorm

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 73 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 73 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 66 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 70 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la 
1128 PM CDT Monday may 20 2013 


Aviation... 
MVFR ceilings are expected to develop again overnight and persist 
into Tuesday morning before mainly improving to VFR conditions 
Tuesday afternoon. 11 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 401 PM CDT Monday may 20 2013/ 


Synopsis... 
latest surface analysis showed a surface ridge of high pressure 
from the Middle Atlantic States to the northeast Gulf. Southerly flow 
was located over the lower and middle Mississippi Valley with 
dewpoint temperatures in the 69 to 73 degree range from the 
Louisiana coast north to Interstate 40. A deep surface low over 
west Minnesota with a boundary south to central Oklahoma to the 
West Texas. Upper air analysis showed a large cyclonic 
circulation centered over western Minnesota with the main trailing 
axis southwest to northern New Mexico. This morning sounding showed 
a warm nose or inversion from 840 to 770mb and surf temperatures in the 
middle 90s will likely break the cap in place. Isotach analysis at 
250mb showed the jet maximum of 90 knots at the base and front side of 
the trough and sub-jet of 60 knots from south Texas to south 
central Gulf. 


Discussion... 
the surface low and the main upper level low will become more 
vertically stacked through Tuesday. This feature will slow the 
progression of the surface front into the deep south this week. 
This will result in some slowing and stalling of the surface cold 
front. However...upper level disturbance at the base of the main 
trough will eject northeast across Texas Panhandle on Tuesday and 
north Mississippi by Wednesday morning. Moisture axis will pool 
along the associated axis from west Tennessee to southeast Texas 
Wednesday morning...affecting northwest zones north of btr and 
southwest MS....ergo will maintain slight chance to chance probability of precipitation. 


Associated short wave will move east with moisture pooling over 
the north half of the forecast area Wednesday morning. Deep south 
to southwest flow of 20 to 25 knots from surf to 700mb and west 
flow and west flow of 35 knots from 650mb to 300mb...producing 
some directional shear or a helicity of around 100 M/S Wednesday 
morning according GFS and NAM. However...cape values of 2500 j/kg 
before the short wave passage...with significant cape values above 
-20c. Therefore...strong storms are possible Wednesday morning 
strong winds and hail...have maintained strong and later packages 
may use stronger wording with hail for Wednesday morning. 


Short wave will push east and leave moisture...thus maintain a 
good chance of rain on Thursday. Main upper level low/trough will 
dig over the east Continental U.S. With a northwest flow developing over middle 
south and lower Mississippi Valley early Friday and drive a 
surface front through land and marine area Friday morning. Front 
will push through Friday and create a dry and slightly cool 
weekend 


Aviation... 
little change in the pattern over the last several days...and not 
much change anticipated until about Wednesday. 


VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon and evening at 
most locations. However...once again expect an inversion overnight 
tonight with low stratus developing generally after 06z. Ceilings 
expected to remain in the MVFR range...though a couple hours of IFR 
ceilings will be possible. Expect conditions to begin improving after 
15z. 


Marine... 
Ridge of high pressure centered in the western Atlantic extends 
into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. It will slowly retreat east 
through Wednesday. This will keep winds southeasterly at 10 to 15 
knots...possibly a touch above 15 knots briefly in the far western 
waters. Seas through that period to be mainly in the 2 foot 
range...with the exception of the western waters with 3 to 4 foot 
waves possible tonight and Tuesday with persistent winds near 15 
knots. 


Upper level trough will dig across the eastern half beginning middle 
week. This will break down ridge over the Gulf Coast and cause the 
wind field to breakdown. A weak frontal boundary will pass through 
Friday morning with a wind shift to the north through much of the 
weekend. 18 


Decision support... 
dss code...blue. 
Deployed...none. 
Activation...none. 
Activities...slurry support. 
Monitoring river flooding. 


Decision support services (dss) code legend 
green = no weather impacts that require action 
blue = long fused watch/warning/advisory in effect or high 
visibility event 
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused 
watch/warning/advisory issuances; radar support 
Orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk severe; nearby 
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes 
red = full engagement for moderate to high risk severe 
and/or direct tropical threats; events of National 
significance 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
mcb 71 88 68 85 / 20 10 20 50 
btr 73 89 72 88 / 20 10 20 40 
asd 73 87 70 86 / 10 10 10 30 
msy 74 87 73 86 / 20 10 10 30 
gpt 73 83 72 84 / 10 10 10 30 
pql 68 86 68 86 / 10 0 10 30 


&& 


Lix watches/warnings/advisories... 
la...none. 
GM...none. 
MS...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$