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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Friday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 70 °
• Thunderstorm

• Saturday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 64 °
• Clear

• Sunday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 68 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Monday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 73 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 73 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service New Orleans la 
950 am CDT Friday may 24 2013 


Sounding discussion... 
12z sounding is moderately moist and very unstable with precipitable water of 1.55 
inches...surface based cape of 2914 j/kg and mixed layer cape of 
1705 j/kg. Moisture profile in sounding is more heavily weighted 
in low levels up to 850 mb and in middle levels from 600-500 mb. 
Modified sounding at kbtr around 20z yields a higher mixed layer 
cape over 2000 j/kg. Wind profile is light northerly /10 knots or 
less/ up to 12kft...then north to northwest at stronger speeds 
above 12kft with a peak wind around 60 knots at 44 kft. Wet microburst 
potential is moderate today...so if more organized multi-cellular 
convection can form there could be some stronger sub-severe wind 
gusts requiring special weather statements. Wet-bulb zero height 
is around 11 kft...so small hail is likely with any storms that 
have elevated high reflectivity cores. 22/dew point 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 341 am CDT Friday may 24 2013/ 


Discussion... 
a generally tranquil weather pattern will prevail during the course 
of the next week with ridging at the surface and aloft dominating 
during most of the period. A backdoor cold front will push south 
across the forecast area today as an upper trough deepens along 
the East Coast. This frontal boundary will move through with 
little fanfare although a few showers and thunderstorms cannot be 
ruled out...primarily across the southern and western sections of 
the forecast area. The main effect of this frontal passage will be 
the much lower dew points and cooler temperatures that will 
prevail in its wake during the Memorial Holiday weekend. Overnight 
lows in the middle and upper 50s will likely be observed both 
Saturday and Sunday across northern sections of the forecast area 
with 60s elsewhere. Highs will mainly be in the middle 80s with 
comfortable humidity levels. 


The upper ridge that will be building over the area at the 
beginning of the forecast period will break down late in the 
weekend and early next week as an upper level disturbance moves 
through the lower Mississippi Valley. A dry airmass in place 
across the area...however... should inhibit any convection as this 
disturbance passes. Upper ridging will then build back over the 
southeast and eastern sections of the country in response to an 
upper trough the will be moving into the western half of the 
Continental U.S.. increasing low level southerly flow next week will result 
in a return to more humid conditions. The upper level ridging will 
inhibit convective development next week...but an isolated 
afternoon shower or thunderstorm will be possible middle to late in 
the week. 11 


Aviation... 
lack of onshore flow tonight...combined with cirrus debris from 
Texas convection...has inhibited development of stratus and fog at 
local terminals. Considering temperature/dew point spreads remain 3 to 4 
degrees at most sites...expect most or all terminals to remain VFR 
for the remainder of the night. 


Convection during the daytime hours near the back door frontal 
boundary...currently near kmcb...will be extremely limited and not 
worthy of mention in the forecast. Drier air moving into the area 
will allow for VFR conditions to continue through Friday night. 35 


Marine... 
high pressure centered over Lake Superior will continue to push a 
frontal boundary southward into the coastal waters today. The cooler 
and drier air will bring moderate northeast winds to the coastal 
waters by this evening. Small craft exercise caution headlines will 
likely be needed late tonight and Saturday morning over the open 
waters east of the mouth of the Mississippi River...and may also be 
needed over the sounds. These conditions should abate rather quickly 
during the day Saturday with onshore flow returning Saturday night. 


Expect onshore flow to strengthen about Monday night or 
Tuesday...especially over the western waters. Exercise caution 
headlines may again be needed by middle week. 35 


Decision support... 
dss code...blue. 
Deployed...none. 
Activation...none. 
Activities...slurry support. 
Monitoring river flooding. 




Decision support services (dss) code legend 
green = no weather impacts that require action 
blue = long fused watch/warning/advisory in effect or high 
visibility event 
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused 
watch/warning/advisory issuances; radar support 
Orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk severe; nearby 
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes 
red = full engagement for moderate to high risk severe 
and/or direct tropical threats; events of National 
significance 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
mcb 87 56 85 56 / 10 10 0 0 
btr 89 64 87 61 / 20 10 0 0 
asd 88 60 85 59 / 10 10 0 0 
msy 88 68 85 65 / 20 10 0 0 
gpt 88 61 84 61 / 10 10 0 0 
pql 88 57 85 58 / 10 10 0 0 


&& 


Lix watches/warnings/advisories... 
la...none. 
GM...none. 
MS...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$