Chalmette, Louisiana Weather Conditions

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Current Conditions

  • 69°
  • Light Rain
  • Wind: East 9 mph
  • Humidity: 84%
  • Visibility: 5.0 miles
  • Dew Point: 64°
  • Pressure: 29.83 in. +

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Next 12 Hours

11  pm
2  am
5  am
8  am
11  am
Thunderstorm
T-storms
Chance of a Thunderstorm
Chance of T-storms
Chance of a Thunderstorm
Chance of T-storms
Chance of a Thunderstorm
Chance of T-storms
Chance of a Thunderstorm
Chance of T-storms
68°
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77°
Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Tuesday
  • Chance of a Thunderstorm
  • High: 79 °
  • Low: 61 °
  • Chance of T-Storms
  • Wednesday
  • Overcast
  • High: 72 °
  • Low: 61 °
  • Overcast
  • Thursday
  • Clear
  • High: 79 °
  • Low: 63 °
  • Clear
  • Friday
  • Clear
  • High: 80 °
  • Low: 64 °
  • Clear
  • Saturday
  • Clear
  • High: 80 °
  • Low: 67 °
  • Clear

Forecast for Chalmette, Louisiana

Updated: 7:16 PM CDT on January 27, 2015

Flash Flood Watch in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
  • Monday

    Windy, thunderstorms with heavy rain likely. Lows overnight in the mid 60s.

  • Monday Night

    Thunderstorms likely - windy with locally heavy rainfall possible, especially early. A few storms may be severe. Low around 65F. Winds E at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 100%. Rainfall may reach one inch.

  • Tuesday

    Mostly cloudy skies. Scattered thunderstorms during the morning. High 79F. ESE winds shifting to NNW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

  • Tuesday Night

    Windy...isolated thunderstorms in the evening, variably cloudy late with a few showers. Low 61F. Winds NW at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

  • Wednesday

    Cloudy. High 72F. Winds NW at 15 to 25 mph.

  • Wednesday Night

    Clear to partly cloudy. Low 61F. Winds NNW at 15 to 25 mph.

  • Thursday

    Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. High 79F. Winds NW at 10 to 20 mph.

  • Thursday Night

    Partly cloudy skies. Low 63F. Winds N at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Friday

    Sunny. High around 80F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Friday Night

    Clear skies. Low 64F. Winds NNE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Saturday

    Sunny skies. High around 80F. Winds NE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Saturday Night

    Clear skies. Low 67F. Winds SSW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday

    Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 81F. Winds SE at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Clear skies. Low near 70F. Winds SE at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Monday

    Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. High 82F. Winds SE at 10 to 20 mph.

  • Monday Night

    Partly cloudy. Low 73F. Winds SE at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Tuesday

    Cloudy with occasional rain showers. High 81F. Winds SE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

  • Tuesday Night

    Rain showers early with mostly clear conditions later at night. Low 74F. Winds SE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

  • Wednesday

    Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 82F. Winds SE at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Wednesday Night

    Partly cloudy with late night showers or thunderstorms. Low 76F. Winds SSE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Thursday

    Thunderstorms likely in the morning. Then the chance of scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 83F. Winds SSE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80%.

  • Thursday Night

    Variably cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Low 76F. Winds SSE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

Severe Weather Alert Descriptions

 Flash Flood Watch  Statement as of 4:11 PM CDT on April 27, 2015


... Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Tuesday
afternoon...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* portions of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi...
including the following areas... in southeast Louisiana...
Ascension... Assumption... East Baton Rouge... East Feliciana...
Iberville... Livingston... lower Jefferson... lower Lafourche...
lower Plaquemines... lower St. Bernard... lower Terrebonne...
northern Tangipahoa... Orleans... Pointe Coupee... southern
Tangipahoa... St. Charles... St. Helena... St. James... St. John
The Baptist... St. Tammany... upper Jefferson... upper
Lafourche... upper Plaquemines... upper St. Bernard... upper
Terrebonne... Washington... West Baton Rouge and West Feliciana.
In southern Mississippi... Amite... Hancock... Harrison...
Jackson... Pearl River... Pike... Walthall and Wilkinson.

* Through Tuesday afternoon

* a potent upper level storm system will impact the region through
Tuesday acting on an abundance of moisture to produce several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms during the period. Heavy
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches had already occurred over many
areas today... and additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches
can be expected through Tuesday with isolated amounts up to 6
inches possible.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.



TD



 Record Report  Statement as of 04:24 PM CDT on April 27, 2015


... Record daily maximum rainfall set at New Orleans...

a record rainfall of 1.74 inches was set at New Orleans today. This
breaks the old record of 1.24 set in 1949.




 Local Storm Report 



04/27/2015 1023 am

3 miles NNW of Kenner, Jefferson Parish.

Tornado, reported by NWS storm survey.


            Multiple trees and power poles uprooted... snapped... or
            bent over between Duncan Canal and the corner of W
            esplanade and Loyola. Minor roof damage also occurred to
            several residences. Roof of a patio lifted off a house.
            Path length 0.5 miles... Max width 50 yards... Max
            estimated winds 90 mph. Rated EF-1.





04/27/2015 1023 am

3 miles NNW of Kenner, Jefferson Parish.

Tornado, reported by NWS storm survey.


            Multiple trees and power poles uprooted... snapped... or
            bent over between Duncan Canal and the corner of W
            esplanade and Loyola. Minor roof damage also occurred to
            several residences. Roof of a patio lifted off a house.
            Path length 0.5 miles... Max width 50 yards... Max
            estimated winds 90 mph. Rated EF-1.





04/27/2015 1026 am

New Orleans armstrbodaux, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind gust m56.00 mph, reported by ASOS.


            New Orleans international wind gust measured at 49 knots
            or 56 mph.




04/27/2015 1028 am

New Orleans armstrbodaux, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind gust m71.00 mph, reported by ASOS.


            Wind gust to 61kt or 70 mph measured at New Orleans
            Armstrong Airport.




04/27/2015 1030 am

Kenner, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by Emergency Mngr.


            Roof blown off house in Kenner.




04/27/2015 1035 am

Metairie, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by Emergency Mngr.


            Emergency management and media report several rail cars
            blown off elevated rail approach to Huey p Long Bridge.
            Time estimated.




04/27/2015 1050 am

Terrytown, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind gust m66.00 mph, reported by co-op observer.


            Coop observer recorded 66 mph gusts.





04/27/2015 1026 am

New Orleans armstrbodaux, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind gust m56.00 mph, reported by ASOS.


            New Orleans international wind gust measured at 49 knots
            or 56 mph.




04/27/2015 1028 am

New Orleans armstrbodaux, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind gust m71.00 mph, reported by ASOS.


            Wind gust to 61kt or 70 mph measured at New Orleans
            Armstrong Airport.




04/27/2015 1030 am

Kenner, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by Emergency Mngr.


            Roof blown off house in Kenner.




04/27/2015 1035 am

Metairie, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by Emergency Mngr.


            Emergency management and media report several rail cars
            blown off elevated rail approach to Huey p Long Bridge.
            Time estimated.




04/27/2015 1050 am

Terrytown, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind gust m66.00 mph, reported by co-op observer.


            Coop observer recorded 66 mph gusts.





04/27/2015 1035 am

Metairie, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by Emergency Mngr.


            Emergency management and media report several rail cars
            blown off elevated rail approach to Huey p Long Bridge.
            Time estimated.





04/27/2015 1035 am

Metairie, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by Emergency Mngr.


            Emergency management and media report several rail cars
            blown off elevated rail approach to Huey p Long Bridge.
            Time estimated.





04/27/2015 1030 am

Kenner, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by Emergency Mngr.


            Roof blown off house in Kenner.





04/27/2015 1030 am

Kenner, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by Emergency Mngr.


            Roof blown off house in Kenner.





04/27/2015 1050 am

Terrytown, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind gust m66 mph, reported by co-op observer.


            Coop observer recorded 66 mph gusts.





04/27/2015 1050 am

Terrytown, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind gust m66 mph, reported by co-op observer.


            Coop observer recorded 66 mph gusts.





04/27/2015 1028 am

New Orleans armstr, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind gust m71 mph, reported by ASOS.


            Wind gust to 61kt or 70 mph measured at New Orleans
            Armstrong Airport.





04/27/2015 1028 am

New Orleans armstr, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind gust m71 mph, reported by ASOS.


            Wind gust to 61kt or 70 mph measured at New Orleans
            Armstrong Airport.





04/27/2015 1026 am

New Orleans armstr, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind gust m56 mph, reported by ASOS.


            New Orleans international wind gust measured at 49 knots
            or 56 mph.





04/27/2015 1026 am

New Orleans armstr, Jefferson Parish.

Thunderstorm wind gust m56 mph, reported by ASOS.


            New Orleans international wind gust measured at 49 knots
            or 56 mph.




 Public Information Statement  Statement as of 7:34 PM CDT on April 27, 2015


... NWS damage survey for 04/27/15 tornado event...

.Jefferson Parish...

Rating: EF-1
estimated peak wind: 90 mph
path length /statute/: 0.5 miles
path width /maximum/: 50 yards
fatalities: 0
injuries: 0

Start date: April 27 2015
start time: 10:23 am CDT
start location: 2.7 NW Kenner
start lat/lon: 30.0254/-90.2789

End date: April 27 2015
end time: 10:23 am CDT
end location: 2.2 NW Kenner
end_lat/lon: 30.0233/-90.2697

Survey_summary: tornado touched down at the levee of Duncan
Canal north of W esplanade Ave. Bent two wooden power poles
near the apartment complex. Tracked to the east-southeast with
mainly light tree damage and one area of light roof damage on
grandlake Blvd. Then crossed canal no. 17 and lifted the roof
off of the back porch of a house on Tulane Dr. On the opposite
side of Tulane Dr another house had a small portion of its roof
ripped off. Continued to the east-southeast and crossed W
Louisiana state Dr and bent over one wooden power pole and snapped
a second. Tornado then uprooted a hard wood tree in front of a
house on W Loyola. Most significant damage then occurred at the
corner of Loyola and W esplanade. Multiple wooden power poles and
a few trees were snapped. Tornado then quickly lifted as it
crossed W esplanade. In addition to the tornado sporadic light
tree damage occurred south of the track and a large portion of
the facade of a hotel on the corner of Loyola and I 10 service
Road... all due to straight line winds.

EF0... weak... ... 65 to 85 mph
EF1... weak... ... 86 to 110 mph
EF2... strong... .111 to 135 mph
EF3... strong... .136 to 165 mph
EF4... violent... 166 to 200 mph
EF5... violent... >200 mph

Note:
the information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the event and publication in
NWS storm data.

Additional storm surveys will be done tomorrow.



Personal Weather Stations

Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]

Location: HOV/BCO/BCEL, Belle Chasse, LA

Updated: 10:44 PM CDT

Temperature: 67.5 °F Dew Point: 67 °F Humidity: 97% Wind: ENE at 6.0 mph Pressure: 29.70 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.08 in Graphs

Location: SpringWood Estates, Belle Chasse, LA

Updated: 10:40 PM CDT

Temperature: 67.3 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 96% Wind: NW at 5.8 mph Pressure: 29.80 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Gulf Coast Special Systems, Gretna, LA

Updated: 10:44 PM CDT

Temperature: 67.4 °F Dew Point: 67 °F Humidity: 98% Wind: ENE at 4.0 mph Pressure: 29.81 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.18 in Graphs

Location: David Crockett Fire Co. No.1, Gretna, LA

Updated: 10:42 PM CDT

Temperature: 67.9 °F Dew Point: 67 °F Humidity: 95% Wind: ENE at 8.0 mph Pressure: 29.79 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.29 in Graphs

Location: Plaquemines Parish HS/EP, Belle Chasse, LA

Updated: 10:34 PM CDT

Temperature: 67.5 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 89% Wind: NNE at 3.0 mph Pressure: 29.84 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.15 in Graphs

Location: French Quarter - CBD, New Orleans, LA

Updated: 10:41 PM CDT

Temperature: 57.7 °F Dew Point: 52 °F Humidity: 80% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.84 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Gentilly Terrace, New Orleans, LA

Updated: 10:44 PM CDT

Temperature: 66.2 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 99% Wind: ESE at 3.0 mph Pressure: 29.78 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: gentilly terrace 6$, New Orleans, LA

Updated: 10:43 PM CDT

Temperature: 67.1 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 97% Wind: East at 3.0 mph Pressure: 29.82 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.16 in Graphs

Location: Gretna / Terrytown 3S, Gretna, LA

Updated: 10:44 PM CDT

Temperature: 66.6 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 100% Wind: ENE at 5.0 mph Pressure: 29.82 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.27 in Graphs

Location: Lakefront Airport, New Orleans, LA

Updated: 10:40 PM CDT

Temperature: 66.7 °F Dew Point: - Humidity: - Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.71 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: East Riverside, New Orleans, LA

Updated: 10:41 PM CDT

Temperature: 66.9 °F Dew Point: 67 °F Humidity: 100% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.69 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Concession, Belle Chasse, LA

Updated: 10:44 PM CDT

Temperature: 68.0 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 94% Wind: NW at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.74 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.27 in Graphs

Location: City Park, New Orleans, LA

Updated: 10:41 PM CDT

Temperature: 67.5 °F Dew Point: 67 °F Humidity: 97% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.82 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Barkley Estates, Harvey, LA

Updated: 10:35 PM CDT

Temperature: 67.5 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 94% Wind: ESE at 3.7 mph Pressure: 29.69 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Uptown/Carrollton, New Orleans, LA

Updated: 10:40 PM CDT

Temperature: 68.7 °F Dew Point: 69 °F Humidity: 100% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.88 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.23 in Graphs

Location: Gentilly, New Orleans, LA

Updated: 10:42 PM CDT

Temperature: 66.6 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 90% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.88 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Freret St above Brottworks, New Orleans, LA

Updated: 10:44 PM CDT

Temperature: 67.1 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 97% Wind: SSE at 7.0 mph Pressure: 29.78 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.17 in Graphs

Location: Prytania St Uptown, New Orleans, LA

Updated: 11:44 PM EDT

Temperature: 61.1 °F Dew Point: 60 °F Humidity: 98% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.65 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.35 in Graphs

Location: APRSWXNET, Harvey, LA

Updated: 10:11 PM CDT

Temperature: 67 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 95% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.80 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Plantation Estates, Marrero, LA

Updated: 10:40 PM CDT

Temperature: 67.3 °F Dew Point: 67 °F Humidity: 98% Wind: NE at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.79 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Esplanade Ridge, New Orleans, LA

Updated: 10:44 PM CDT

Temperature: 66.4 °F Dew Point: 65 °F Humidity: 96% Wind: ESE at 10.1 mph Pressure: 29.79 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.09 in Graphs

Location: Lakeview, New Orleans, LA

Updated: 10:44 PM CDT

Temperature: 65.8 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 100% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.72 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Lakeview, New Orleans, LA

Updated: 10:41 PM CDT

Temperature: 65.8 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 100% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.72 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Lakeview East, New Orleans, LA

Updated: 10:35 PM CDT

Temperature: 66.0 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 92% Wind: ESE at 2.7 mph Pressure: 29.79 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Uptown, New Orleans, LA

Updated: 9:31 PM CDT

Temperature: 66.5 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 100% Wind: East at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.85 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.16 in Graphs

Location: Audubon Station, New Orleans, LA

Updated: 9:31 PM CDT

Temperature: 67.9 °F Dew Point: 38 °F Humidity: 34% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.81 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.14 in Graphs

Location: Lakewood, New Orleans, LA

Updated: 10:40 PM CDT

Temperature: 66.6 °F Dew Point: 67 °F Humidity: 100% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.93 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: West Lakeshore, New Orleans, LA

Updated: 10:44 PM CDT

Temperature: 66.5 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 99% Wind: West at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.70 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.06 in Graphs

Location: Birdie Crossing - Old Metairie, Metairie, LA

Updated: 10:44 PM CDT

Temperature: 66.2 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 99% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.59 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.07 in Graphs

Location: Riverbend - SnoWizard, New Orleans, LA

Updated: 10:39 PM CDT

Temperature: 66.8 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 98% Wind: ENE at 8.0 mph Pressure: 29.76 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.25 in Graphs

Location: NOS_NWLON, New Orleans, LA

Updated: 10:12 PM CDT

Temperature: 68 °F Dew Point: - Humidity: - Wind: NE at 11 mph Pressure: 29.84 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Oaklawn Drive, Metairie, LA

Updated: 10:41 PM CDT

Temperature: 66.0 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 100% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.92 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.14 in Graphs

Location: Elmeer Ave., Metairie, LA

Updated: 10:44 PM CDT

Temperature: 66.2 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 100% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.75 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.23 in Graphs

MSN Maps of:

Temp: Dew Point: Humidity Wind Pressure Hr Precip -

NWS Forecaster Discussion




Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la 
949 PM CDT Monday Apr 27 2015 


Update... 
there are numerous forecast concerns both on land and over the 
Gulf waters tonight. For the time being...the risk of severe 
thunderstorms and flash flooding appears limited over most land 
areas...but still elevated near the extreme south coastal areas of 
southeast Louisiana...and especially into the coastal waters 
where a well defined frontal/strong convergence boundary has 
settled. This area of strongest convection also appears to be near 
the favorable nose of the subrtropical jet where upper divergence 
is maximized. The 18z GFS appears to be verifying quantitative precipitation forecast wise the 
best...and the hrrr give short term support to the GFS. Had 
concerns earlier this evening that rainfall/quantitative precipitation forecast would exceed 
earlier expectations when things developed rapidly...but trends 
may now be reversing. Will continue to hold onto the Flash Flood 
Watch for now given all the favorable parameters that remain in 
place...but the watch could need to be trimmed back closer to the 
coast later tonight. Updates will be sent shortly. 22/dew point 


&& 


Marine... 


Numerous unforeseen factors have kept fairly consistent strong 
Small Craft Advisory conditions with occasional gales...even away 
from the stronger thunderstorms. Issued a Small Craft Advisory 
earlier this evening...and will keep that intact and issue short 
fuse special marine warnings for the numerous strong to severe 
thunderstorms that should continue much of the night. 22/dew point 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 813 PM CDT Monday Apr 27 2015/ 


.Sounding discussion... 


The sounding this evening is depicting a modified environment at 
low levels from the convection earlier today. Winds are easterly 
from the surface to 750 mb then switch to westerly. There is a 10 f 
inversion from the surface to 900 mb... which implies convection to 
the north this evening is elevated. Southwest flow and a more rich 
maritime airmass from the Gulf would result in a more unstable 
environment near the coast. Midlevel lapse rates are steep 
however at about 7.3 c/km. The jet maximum is 120 kts at 160 mb and precipitable water 
is above normal at 1.46 inches. 
Krautmann 


Previous discussion... /issued 449 PM CDT Monday Apr 27 2015/ 


Short term... 


Severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will continue to be the 
main concerns tonight and possibly into Tuesday morning as the 
potent storm system and associated waves of energy in the middle and 
upper levels move through the region. It was a busy morning with 
numerous severe weather events and some reports of flooding. 
Additional thunderstorms in south central Louisiana have become 
strong to severe with hail being the main threat. Current 
thunderstorms over the northwest and north portion of the forecast 
area will likely persist into the evening as storms to the west 
move across this region. Large severe thunderstorms that developed 
the last couple hours over the northwest Gulf...off the Upper 
Texas coast...will likely grow in number and eventually move into 
west to southwest portion of the forecast area either late this 
evening or around midnight. This would be consistent with earlier 
forecast reasoning and the trends of the latest 12z GFS and European model (ecmwf) 
quantitative precipitation forecast forecasts. It is anticipated the stronger thunderstorms will 
be in single cells...clusters and line segments...and the 
progressive nature and fast movement should hold the additional 
rainfall amounts down in the 1 to 3 inch range in most areas. Will 
need to monitor convective trends this evening...as would not be 
surprised to see some larger swaths of 2 to 4 inches with embedded 
higher amounts near 6 inches. Regardless of whether these amounts 
are realized or exceeded...there will be maximized rainfall 
efficiency that could drop some 2 to 4 inch amounts in a one to 
two hour period. For that reason...the Flash Flood Watch is 
obviously needed tonight into at least early Tuesday morning. Have 
left the watch in effect through 1 PM Tuesday. 


The forecast area remains in a marginal to slight risk of severe 
thunderstorms through tonight. Based on the recent history of 
severe trends...the strong dynamics...impressive shear and 
instability...and precipitable water as high as around 2 
inches...will all remain favorable for flooding rains and severe 
thunderstorms. 


Improvement will be on the horizon starting Tuesday 
afternoon...and especially going into Tuesday night and Wednesday 
as the storm system moves east of the forecast area and much drier 
air moves in. 


Long term... 


The dry air will lead to cooler nighttime temperatures and 
slightly below normal temperatures in the 70s to near 80 for late 
in the week and the weekend. A potent shortwave trough with a 
reinforcement of cooler air will move from the western Great Lakes 
south and southeast across the southeast states Wednesday night 
through Thursday night. Any associated moisture with this system 
will remain well northeast of the forecast area...so only a few 
passing clouds are expected. The entire forecast area has no 
mention of rain Wednesday night through Monday...and much of this 
time will be completely clear with low humidity. 22/dew point 


Aviation... 


Expect VFR to MVFR conditions this afternoon and evening as 
additional thunderstorms develop over the next several hours. Have 
left thunderstorms in the vicinity in most terminals through the period. Expect another area 
of storms to develop late tonight and should impact the terminals 
from west to east mainly after 06z. 


Marine... 


After an eventful morning and early afternoon storms are finally 
pushing out of the coastal waters. Winds will remain elevated 
through tonight. Small craft should exercise caution tonight and 
into Tuesday morning. Expect another round of storms to develop 
again late tonight and they should move through the coastal waters 
after midnight into Tuesday morning. A surface low will develop near 
the Texas coastal Bend and move east through the local coastal 
waters Tuesday. This will help shift winds from an easterly and 
southeast direction to northwest. With the low moving east slowly...northwest 
wind speeds will stay elevated through Friday. Return flow on 
southeasterly winds will start once again by next week. 13/mh 


Decision support... 
dss code...Orange 
deployed...Navy week. 
Activation...none. 
Activities...monitoring severe weather and flash flood potential 
through Tuesday. 




Decision support services (dss) code legend 
green = no weather impacts that require action 
blue = long fused watch/warning/advisory in effect or high 
visibility event 
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused 
watch/warning/advisory issuances; radar support 
Orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk severe; nearby 
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes 
red = full engagement for moderate risk severe and/or direct 
tropical threats; events of National significance 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
mcb 70 60 71 51 / 90 90 50 20 
btr 72 64 75 52 / 80 90 40 20 
asd 73 67 77 55 / 100 100 50 20 
msy 74 69 79 57 / 100 100 40 20 
gpt 74 66 75 58 / 100 100 60 30 
pql 73 65 78 58 / 100 100 70 40 


&& 


Lix watches/warnings/advisories... 
la...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for laz034>037-039- 
040-046>050-056>072. 


GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 am CDT Tuesday for gmz536-538-550- 
552-555-557-570-572-575-577. 


MS...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for msz068>071-077- 
080>082. 


GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 am CDT Tuesday for gmz538-550-552- 
555-557-570-572-575-577. 


&& 


$$ 






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