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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 73 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 73 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 70 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 66 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 66 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la 
350 PM CDT Tuesday may 21 2013 


Synopsis... 
latest surface showed a deep 1001mb low over southwest Minnesota 
with an occluded front extending east then a cold front southwest 
through Missouri to Oklahoma to central Texas. Ridge of high 
pressure remained from the Middle Atlantic States to northeast Gulf. 
Southwest flow between these two features allow Gulf moisture to 
funnel from the Texas coast to the Great Lakes region. Upper level 
analysis showed the cyclonic circulation centered over the surface 
low but expansive over the upper Mississippi Valley and northern 
plains. In addition...infrared satellite imagery showed a smaller 
cyclonic circulation over Texas Panhandle. Precipitable water 
value planar field showed the deep moisture pooling along the 
front with values 1.5 inches from northeast Texas to central 
Arkansas...precipitable water values from 1.5 inches northwest zones to 1 inch over MS 
coast. Isotach analysis at 250mb showed jet maximum of 95 knots on the 
front side of the main upper low/trough...northern Missouri to 
Wisconsin and sub-jet from south Texas to west Cuba...place a 
divergence field over the arklatex region. In other words...best 
fields for convection will occur northwest of the forecast area 
this afternoon. 


&& 


Discussion... 
main upper level low/trough will fill or open to a positively tilted 
trough. This will allow the smaller circulation to lift northeast 
late tonight into Wednesday morning. Moisture axis will shift east 
toward northwest zones late tonight. Cape values will increase up 
to 3kj/kg late tonight through Wednesday morning field with 
veering winds from surf to 600mb but not great wind speeds. With 
the little wave forecasted to pull northeast over Arkansas and 
Missouri Wednesday morning...the strongest dynamics will be north of the 
area. With this package...we are thinking scattered convection...a 
few strong storms with small sub severe hail and strong winds 
Wednesday morning for areas north of btr. 


Otherwise...scattered convection on Wednesday as the frontal 
struggles to approach the area. Moisture will remain in place for 
Thursday...so will maintain chance probability of precipitation. The main trough will 
deepen on the East Coast flow pushing the bulk of the dry air just 
east of forecast...tricky temperature forecast with frontal 
passage across east zones Friday night and relatively deeper moisture 
over west zones. Ergo...will maintain a slight chance across btr 
and some river parishes on Friday. Main trough will lift off the 
East Coast and leaving ridge to slowly amplify over southern tier 
over the weekend at 500 mb...cool air will slip underneath this 
feature and create more stable atmosphere through the weekend. 


&& 


Aviation... 


Most areas will see a cloud deck developing in the fl010-fl020 
range between 04 and 06z. Could see brief MVFR with patchy fog 
between 08 and 12z Wednesday morning. With winds will decrease 
this evening to 3 to 7 knots at all terminals Wednesday morning. 
Conditions should improve around 15z with ceilings all above 
fl020. Convective development may btr and mcb as early as 10z 
Wednesday morning and the other sites between 12 and 18z. 18 


&& 


Marine... 


Ridge of high pressure centered in the western Atlantic extends into 
the northeast Gulf of Mexico. It will slowly retreat east through 
Wednesday. This will keep winds southeasterly at 10 to 15 
knots...possibly a touch above 15 knots briefly in spots. Seas through 
that period to be mainly in the 2 foot range...with the exception of 
the western waters with 3 to 4 foot waves possible today with 
persistent winds near 15 knots. 


Upper level trough will dig across the eastern half beginning middle 
week. This will break down ridge over the Gulf Coast and cause the 
wind field to breakdown. A weak frontal boundary will pass through 
eastern legs of marine zones Friday night with a wind shift to 
the north through the first half of the weekend. 18 


&& 


Decision support... 
dss code...blue. 
Deployed...none. 
Activation...none. 
Activities...slurry support. 
Monitoring river flooding. 


Decision support services (dss) code legend 
green = no weather impacts that require action 
blue = long fused watch/warning/advisory in effect or high 
visibility event 
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused 
watch/warning/advisory issuances; radar support 
Orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk severe; nearby 
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes 
red = full engagement for moderate to high risk severe 
and/or direct tropical threats; events of National 
significance 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
mcb 69 87 68 90 / 20 50 20 30 
btr 74 89 70 90 / 20 50 20 30 
asd 73 88 69 89 / 10 30 20 30 
msy 75 87 72 87 / 10 30 20 30 
gpt 74 86 68 86 / 10 30 20 30 
pql 68 86 67 88 / 10 30 20 30 


&& 


Lix watches/warnings/advisories... 
la...none. 
GM...none. 
MS...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$